Seth Dunn, Christopher Flavin
Going into Johannesburg, scientists have stronger evidence that most of the world's warming of the past 50 years is attributable to human activities. But with the Bush Administration in the U.S. and European ministers once again readying to square off on global warming, one may wonder whether Johannesburg in 2002 will be simply a repeat of Rio in 1992, when the first Bush administration refused to embrace mandatory commitments to counter climate change.
Despite the slow start, the world has not stood still in the decade since the signature and ratification of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. The science, economics, business, and politics of the climate issue have all evolved in ways that may help to move the agenda forward. A growing number of multinationals, such as BP, DuPont, and Nike, have taken on commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and recent government studies in the U.S., Europe, and Japan suggest a significant potential for low- to no-cost emissions cuts via the use of cleaner and more energy-efficient technologies.
World Summit priorities: Bringing the Kyoto Protocol into force before the Summit is of critical symbolic importance; setting forth a blueprint for post-Johannesburg climate negotiations, emphasizing the need to reengage the United States; considering a second period of emissions cuts; and expanding the group of countries with emissions targets will also further negotiations.