Summary

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Two recent tragedies, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2005 earthquake in Kashmir, gave rise to hopes that three longstanding Asian conflicts could finally be brought to an end: the separatist uprising in Indonesia’s Aceh Province, the civil war in Sri Lanka, and the territorial dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. Amid terrible loss of life, these disasters presented residents and policymakers alike with a host of new challenges, but also with unique opportunities to address their ongoing troubles.

Earthquakes, floods, droughts, and other natural disasters exact a heavy human and economic toll. On average, 231 million people were affected by natural disasters each year over the past decade—equivalent to every person in Indonesia, the fourth most populous country in the world.

As climate change and ecosystem destruction intensify, the stage is being set for more frequent, more powerful, and more destructive disaster events. Communities that are already disempowered as a result of economic and ecological marginalization are exceptionally vulnerable to disasters, which exacerbate problems of poverty, indebtedness, and food insecurity. Many of the world’s poorest residents are forced to live on unstable hillsides or in areas prone to drought or flooding. Women, children, and the elderly are among those most affected by disasters.

Disasters can trigger conflicts by straining the social and economic fabric of affected communities. Recriminations may occur over such post-disaster realities as unequal relief efforts, inadequate compensation, contentious aid distribution, unwelcome resettlement, or lack of consultation with those who are most affected. In extreme cases, the seeds of violent conflict may be sown.

Areas of recent or current armed conflict are particularly at risk. But when disasters occur in conflict zones, they can produce an unexpected silver lining: the opportunity for peace. By jolting the political landscape, disasters hold the potential to quickly transform
conflict dynamics and generate opportunities to bring long-running disputes to an end. Hardship that cuts across existing divides can prompt acts of goodwill and create common relief needs. Joint emergency aid efforts and rebuilding activities can be a catalyst for building mutual trust among adversaries. In some cases, the destruction wrought by a disaster may be so great that reconstruction in conflict afflicted regions is able to proceed only with a ceasefire or peace agreement...

"Unnatural" Disasters

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In late December 2004, the earth shook violently. Deep beneath the Indian Ocean, an enormous tectonic plate lurched sideways, shifting more than 15 meters in a matter of seconds. Pushing the adjoining plate upward, the movement set off a massive earthquake that measured 9.0 on the Richter scale, triggering one of the deadliest tsunamis in modern history. Although it took many weeks to tally the gruesome toll, within hours more than 200,000 people had lost their lives in over a dozen countries along the Indian Ocean’s rim...

The March Toward Disaster

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In recent years, the world’s attention has been pulled rapidly from one disaster event to the next.With an average of nearly one natural disaster per day—348 recorded each year over the past decade—it is no wonder that governments, aid agencies, local organizations, businesses, and citizens are hard-pressed to keep up with these calamities.1* (See Figure 1.) To qualify as a disaster, as defined by the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, a natural hazard must kill 10 or more people, affect 100 or more people, or necessitate a declaration of emergency or call for international assistance...

Understanding Factors of Vulnerability

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Disasters provoked by storms, floods, droughts, earthquakes, and other hazards often compromise human security, exacting a heavy economic toll and undermining livelihoods. These effects can be temporary, but in many cases disaster also impairs the long-term habitability or economic viability of the affected area. While the severity of disaster is an important factor, the timeliness and adequacy of relief and rebuilding programs, and the resilience of affected communities and societies, will ultimately shape the future of the area...

Storm Clouds and Silver Linings

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Beyond livelihood and human security impacts, sudden stresses caused by disaster may strain the social and economic structures of a community, deepening existing inequalities and triggering conflicts.Not only are disasters, as a 2005 Oxfam International report put it, “profoundly discriminatory in their impact on people” (with factors like gender, age, and income determining who will be most affected), but human reactions often reinforce their unequal impacts.1 How well a government responds has important political implications. Competent disaster management can improve an agency’s image and efficacy, while an inept or indifferent attitude toward disaster will likely erode citizens’ trust...

Case Study—Aceh: Peacemaking After the Tsunami

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On December 26, 2004, fighters with the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, or GAM) looked on helplessly from mountain redoubts as tsunami waves washed over their coastal village below, killing nearly every inhabitant. Although the tsunami that devastated much of Aceh—a province of Indonesia embroiled in conflict for almost 30 years—did not end fighting right away, it helped kick-start successful peace negotiations...

Case Study—Sri Lanka: A "Double Blow" to Development

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On the morning after Christmas Day, 2004, several families in the Sri Lankan capital of Colombo were on their way to a festive brunch at a hotel overlooking the Indian Ocean. On their way, they heard an emergency broadcast over the car radio, reporting that large waves had hit the eastern and southern coasts. They watched as a strange haziness developed on the horizon and ocean undulations left boats damaged in the nearby harbor. Even though it took two hours for the tsunami waves to travel from the quake’s epicenter to Sri Lankan shores, disaster came to the country quite unexpectedly...

Case Study—Kashmir: Physical Tremor, but No Political Earthquake

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When a massive earthquake struck Kashmir on October 8, 2005, families sprawled across this mountainous territory naturally wanted to make sure that relatives living in nearby towns and villages had survived. But many of them could not reach their kin—and impassable roads were only part of the problem. The quake’s epicenter was near the “Line of Control” (LoC), the ceasefire line that demarcates India and Pakistan’s claims on Kashmir and separates many Kashmiri families...

Creating Future Opportunities for Peace

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Aceh, Sri Lanka, and Kashmir have all experienced conflict and then disaster. Their starkly different post-disaster trajectories offer critical lessons for conflict resolution, exemplifying the diversity of roles that the government, military, disaster relief, and conflict resolution communities can play when opportunities for peace arise.

These examples also provide insight into the complex post-disaster dynamics and unique local contexts that can make or break fleeting opportunities for peace. While local sensitivities can be overpowering, some larger lessons hold true for most cases: for instance, compassion alone is unlikely to carry warring factions through the complexities of a peace process. Only when all sides have decided they are ready to address the root causes of the conflict—grievances, inequities, and discordant goals—will a political formula for peace be possible.

Endnotes

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Index

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