Summary

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Two recent tragedies, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2005 earthquake in Kashmir, gave rise to hopes that three longstanding Asian conflicts could finally be brought to an end: the separatist uprising in Indonesia’s Aceh Province, the civil war in Sri Lanka, and the territorial dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. Amid terrible loss of life, these disasters presented residents and policymakers alike with a host of new challenges, but also with unique opportunities to address their ongoing troubles.

Earthquakes, floods, droughts, and other natural disasters exact a heavy human and economic toll. On average, 231 million people were affected by natural disasters each year over the past decade—equivalent to every person in Indonesia, the fourth most populous country in the world.

As climate change and ecosystem destruction intensify, the stage is being set for more frequent, more powerful, and more destructive disaster events. Communities that are already disempowered as a result of economic and ecological marginalization are exceptionally vulnerable to disasters, which exacerbate problems of poverty, indebtedness, and food insecurity. Many of the world’s poorest residents are forced to live on unstable hillsides or in areas prone to drought or flooding. Women, children, and the elderly are among those most affected by disasters.

Disasters can trigger conflicts by straining the social and economic fabric of affected communities. Recriminations may occur over such post-disaster realities as unequal relief efforts, inadequate compensation, contentious aid distribution, unwelcome resettlement, or lack of consultation with those who are most affected. In extreme cases, the seeds of violent conflict may be sown.

Areas of recent or current armed conflict are particularly at risk. But when disasters occur in conflict zones, they can produce an unexpected silver lining: the opportunity for peace. By jolting the political landscape, disasters hold the potential to quickly transform
conflict dynamics and generate opportunities to bring long-running disputes to an end. Hardship that cuts across existing divides can prompt acts of goodwill and create common relief needs. Joint emergency aid efforts and rebuilding activities can be a catalyst for building mutual trust among adversaries. In some cases, the destruction wrought by a disaster may be so great that reconstruction in conflict afflicted regions is able to proceed only with a ceasefire or peace agreement...