Ensuring a Better Day After Tomorrow

Worldwatch Live Online Discussion

Thomas Prugh and Erik Assadourian

June 4, 2004 - 2:00pm EDT

Abrupt climate change thrusts the world into utter chaos in the new film,† The Day After Tomorrow, which hits theaters on May 28. As people battle massive hailstones, cataclysmic tornadoes, and lethal snowstorms, a sweltering New York City turns into an icy wastelandóall in matter of hours. Thereís no doubt that The Day After Tomorrow aims to entertain, but it may also be remembered as a timely movie that issued an important wake-up call about global climate change.

Submit your questions now and join Worldwatch researchers Tom Prugh and Erik Assadourian on June 4th as they discuss climate change and the movie The Day After Tomorrow.

Steve Conklin, Wordwatch Institute: Good afternoon, and welcome to Worldwatch Live. Joining us today are Worldwatch Senior Editor Tom Prugh, and Worldwatch Staff Researcher Erik Assadourian. Tom and Erik, could you give our audience some insight on today's topic, and Worldwatch's involvement in "Ensuring a Better Day After Tomorrow."

Thomas Prugh and Erik Assadourian : Thanks Steve,

As always it's a pleasure to get a chance to answer questions and lead an environmental discussion--especially one as energized as "Ensuring a Better Day After Tomorrow." A quick insight into what led us to creating a response to a Hollywood movie would definitely be in order. A few months back we received an early draft of the script of the movie and immediately we (and many others in the environmental community) realized that the release of this movie was a teachable moment. Millions of people around the world would be exposed to a worst-case climate change scenario (albeit greatly exaggerated). If we did not respond to this, we not only could lose an opportunity to discuss the real problem of climate change, but we actually risked viewers coming to view climate change as just a Hollywood creation and not a threat at all. Thus we designed a website that offers the facts and science behind climate change, set up this chat, and made ourselves available to the media to help answer their questions as they wrote stories on this movie.

We already have some great questions in the queue and we look forward to more in the next hour!

Erik

Athens Greece: all projections are based upon past weather data and emission calculations past presend and future. Can we trust these data? Why some scientist are skeptics or have douts? Who is telling the truth? Recentry the russian academy advised Putin to stop Kyoto ratification.

Thomas Prugh and Erik Assadourian : The data, both from observations and computer modeling, have been compiled and analyzed by some of the best climate scientists in the world. They are the soundest availableówhich is not to say those numbers wonít be added to and revised, many times, as research continues. Thatís the way science worksówhich is why the skeptics about climate change have played a valuable role, by forcing further study and accumulation of data. However, nearly all of the skeptics have retreated over the years, from denying the evidence of warming and human influence on it, to arguing that it wonít be that bad and itís too expensive to do anything about. These days their arguments often sound ideological, i.e., let the markets deal with the problem, not governments. Markets will of course be important in addressing the problems of climate change, but there never has been a totally free market; markets are always shaped in ways that express collective social values. So, in my opinion, the only question is, what actions do we want our governments take to shape the directions markets should take us?

As for the Russian Academy: I have no doubt that it has many brilliant members, but the question of Russian ratification of Kyoto is heavily politicized and the Academyís advice to President Putin should be viewed in that light.

Tom Prugh

San Diego, CA.: Are there any direct effects of the warming of the Earth and Earthquakes. Ex: Hotter weather more shifts in the known great faults?

Thomas Prugh and Erik Assadourian : I havenít seen anything in the research literature suggesting that warming might trigger earthquakes, but you might check the 2001 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for a more definitive answer (www.ipcc.ch).

Tom

Atzmon, Israel: The producers of the movie knew what they were doing when they "collapsed" the time scale of climate change. As Robert Ornstein and Paul Erlich show in their book "New World New Mind", we are build to pay much more attention to the dramatic and short-term than the slow, gradual changes involved in greenhouse warming. How do we counteract this? Education? Including an "Olds" section in the media news which covers long term trends on a local and regional scale?

Thomas Prugh and Erik Assadourian :
The producers definitely knew what they were doing. Indeed, Iím not sure if the movie would have been a success if this dramatic change occurred over the still very short time frame of 20 years. How do you condense the events of 20 years into 2 hours and still focus it on characters and killer storms? If we look at the movie as an intentional exaggeration, one that allows us to create a story to examine climate change, and more broadly, societyís priorities and its vision for the future, then the movie can be deemed a successóas long as the audience is clear that this is a fictionalized account of climate change but that climate change (in its slower form) is a real danger.

More generally, the problem isóas far as the future of human society goesóis that we are built to pay more attention to short-term pressures. Historically, of course, this was helpfulófinding the next meal was more important for our ancestors than worrying about whether a centimeter of soil had eroded over the past 10 years. However, now, with a population of 6+ billion people consuming at a rate never before seen, we are jeopardizing the future stability of the environment on which we depend. Exceptóthese changes go slowly and often arenít observed directly but through their influence on other problems. What are the links between sustainable development issues such as poverty, hunger, disease, water scarcity, and broader global security? How do the former trigger political instabilities and regional conflicts? We are currently working to answer these questions in our new ìGlobal Security Projectî in order to make clear the links between the environment and our long-term security. [Stay tuned for more news on that research.]

It will take a new awareness to achieve this reorientation towards the long-term well-being of societyónot just through education (which will be very important) but also through political action to demand governments, businesses, and communities, to intentionally ask what their priorities are (i.e. just profit or profit while producing a socially and environmentally sustainable product?). But without efforts from all concerned citizens, our priorities will remain as they are, much to despair of future generations.

Erik

Chicago, IL: Can this really happen in real life? I pray not because I have much still to accomlish in my lifetime! How can we prevent? Of course, staying prayerful always works.

Thomas Prugh and Erik Assadourian : The movie's scenario is essentially impossible, though global warming is happening now. For more explanation, please see our ìDay After Tomorrowî website portal (www.worldwatch.org/features/climate/).

Tom

Cambridge, MA: What issues would the areas which were not frozen be facing as a result of the climate change, in terms of water, farming, transportation?

Thomas Prugh and Erik Assadourian : By ìfrozenî I assume you mean as a result of the ìice ageî depicted in the movie. Thatís fiction; weíre not facing a new ice age. The kernel of truth in the movie is that the scenario it shows is triggered by continued warmingóand itís that warming we need to worry about. The consequences will vary from place to place, and the computer simulations are not able at this time to make good predictions for specific regions. In general, we can expect more severe and frequent storms (such as hurricanes and ice storms), heat waves, floods, droughts, and wildfires. Warmer temperatures will increase the range of disease-bearing mosquitoes, while also increasing the range and numbers of insects and other agricultural pests, such as weeds. Melting glaciers and expanding sea water (water expands as it warms) will further raise sea level, inundating low-lying islands and flooding coastal areas, while warmer ocean temperatures will kill many if not most of the worldís coral reefs. Such events, in turn, will influence our food supply, our access to clean water, our health, and the economic and social conditions of families and communities around the world.

As ecosystems become further stressed by climate change, species extinction will accelerate. Many of the species lost will be seemingly "insignificant" plants and insects, but we will also lose plants that could cure diseases, and large animals such as polar bears, which rely on winter ice as a platform to hunt for food. Warmer winters could mean reduced snow pack for some regions, reducing water supplies and the output of hydropower dams in the northwestern United States, for example, and shortening or eliminating ski seasons in some regions. The regional or national economic impacts of such changes could be significant.

Many such changes are already being seen around the world. For example, the number of weather-related disasters experienced worldwide every year has been increasing over the past few decades. In the United States, the number of such disasters experienced each decade has risen fivefold since the 1970s. During the course of this century, average global surface temperatures are projected to increase at a rate unprecedented over at least the past 10,000 years, and scientists believe that rising temperatures could further increase the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events.

Tom

Annapolis, MD: Are there any other science fiction movies I should watch to broaden my perspective on important environmental issues? Which of the following do you think would be the best argument to use against people who suggest that the world might actually NOT be ending? A) butterflies are moving northward B) a girl in a bathing suit was seen in Barrow Alaska C) thin ice at the North Pole D) thick ice at the North Pole E) Heavy rain F) Light Rain G) Light Snow H) Heavy snow? Thanks. I'm really worried. Thanks for your

Thomas Prugh and Erik Assadourian : I personally always liked Blade Runner. I think any of your arguments might work on somebody whose curiosity is easily satisfied. But if you ever see a bikini-clad butterfly skating north on thin ice, youíll know weíre in deep trouble. Or at least you are.

Tom

Norwich, UK: A couple of questions: - What is, in your expert opinion, the probability that the ocean circulation will shut down in the next 100 years? - Does this movie raise awareness about climate change or does it in fact make people more doubtful of it? - Do you think this movie will bring about behavioural change for the Americans that have seen the movie?

Thomas Prugh and Erik Assadourian : Thereís something of a debate going on about the probability of a shutdown of the North Atlantic currents that keep Europe comfortable, but the current (no pun intended) thinking seems to be that 1) the likelihood of such a shutdown is very low, 2) if the currents did shut down it wouldnít happen for several decades, and 3) any cooling effect would be swamped by the general warming that had gone on in the meantime.

As for the movie, like other environmental organizations Worldwatch has chosen to take this as a ìteachable momentî and try to reach the public with a message that matters: that global warming is real, itís generally going to mean trouble, and that thereís plenty we can do to slow it down and mitigate its effects. We hope people will take that message to heart.

New York, NY: Ok--I've got mixed feelings about this whole thing. While the movie offered an opportunity to highlight the problem of climate change (and indeed--as the hilarious portrayal of the US Vice President showed--the failing American response), how much impact will this movie truly have? How long will this capture the worldís imagination? Until Harry Potter comes out? I, Robot? Or if itís really lucky, Spiderman? Itís a summer blockbuster, and before the month is over, people wonít even remember the name of the movie.

Thomas Prugh and Erik Assadourian : Well, with DVD rentals, hopefully this movie's impact will last longer than a week!
Seriously though in choosing to respond to this movie we were hoping to not only draw attention to it but to help those concerned with environmental issues to use the movie to start a broader discussion about the importance of dealing with climate change. While many countries are already responding (as are many states and communities in the US) the United States still has failed to ratify Kyoto and hasn't even passed the weaker bill floating through the Senate. Maybe, between conversations after the movie, media stories, video rentals and discussions by classes in the fall (hint hint to any teachers out there reading), and other activities, a little more energy will be created to deal with climate change. While the time frame of this disaster is terribly exaggerated, it is not an exaggeration to say that we must start dealing with climate change immediately if we want to minimize its effects on human society.

Erik

Steve Conklin, Worldwatch Institute: Thanks for joining us today on Worldwatch Live, Tom and Erik.

Thomas Prugh and Erik Assadourian : Thanks, Steve, always a pleasure.

Erik and Tom