Weather-related Disasters Dominate

In 2007, there were 874 weather-related disas­ters worldwide, a 13-percent increase over 2006 and the highest number since the systematic recording of natural perils began in 1974.¹ Weather-related disasters around the world have been on the rise for decades (see Figure 1): on average, 300 events were recorded every year in the 1980s, 480 events in the 1990s, and 620 events in the last 10 years.²

Weather-related disasters can be divided into meteorological, hydrological, and climatological events.³ The category of meteorological events includes tropical cyclones (hurricanes, typhoons, cyclones), extratropical cyclones (winter storms), and local storms (severe storms, thunderstorms, hailstorms, snow­storms, and tornadoes). Hydrological events include floods (general floods, flash floods, storm surges/coastal floods) and wet mass movements (rockfalls, landslides, avalanches, subsidence). And climatological events include extreme temperatures (heat waves, cold waves, extreme winter conditions), droughts, and wildfires (forest fires, bush/brush fires, scrub/grassland fires, urban fires).⁴

In 2007, weather-related disasters accounted for 91 percent of all natural disasters, a broader classification that also includes earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and dry mass movements.⁵ About 81 percent of economic losses from natural catastrophes and 97 percent of insured losses resulted from weather-related disasters.⁶ And all six "great natural disasters" in 2007-three storms and three floods-were weather-related.⁷ A "great natural disaster" occurs if the affected region's ability to help itself is overstretched and supraregional or international assistance is required. As a rule, this is the case when there are thousands of fatalities, when hundreds of thousands of people are made homeless, or when the overall losses or the insured losses reach exceptional orders of magnitude.

Economic losses from weather-related disasters totaled about $69 billion in 2007, an increase of 36 percent over the figure in 2006.⁸ It is worth noting, however, that losses in 2006 were unusually low in comparison with losses in 2004 ($108 billion) and 2005 ($214 billion), when the hurricane seasons caused extraor­din­arily high economic and insured losses.⁹ (See Figure 2.)

Fatalities due to weather-related disasters in 2007 (at 15,295) accounted for 95 percent of the deaths in all natural disasters.¹⁰ This was an increase of 14 percent over fatalities in 2006.¹¹ More than half of the fatalities worldwide were caused by floods, 3 percent were from wet mass movements, 39 percent occurred in storm events, and 5 percent were during climatological events like extreme temperatures and wildfires.¹² (See Figure 3.)

The catastrophes with the greatest human tolls in 2007 occurred in developing and emerging countries. Storms, floods, and landslides in various parts of Asia caused more than 11,000 deaths, with some 3,300 attributable just to Cyclone Sidr, which struck Bangladesh in November.¹³ In June, Cyclone Gonu crossed the Arabian Sea to Oman. It was the most intense storm ever recorded in the Arabian Sea and the heaviest tropical cyclone with a track leading into the Gulf of Oman.¹⁴

The number of named storms in the 2007 hurricane season (15) was much higher than the long-term climatological average of 10.6 named storms in 1950-2006 and roughly equal to the average of the current Atlantic warm phases.¹⁵ Nevertheless, as only two of last year's hurricanes (Dean and Felix) were classified as intense storms, the intensity of the 2007 season was below the long-term average. At $60 mil­lion, economic losses in the United States for this hurricane season were far below average.¹⁶

But the United States suffered particularly from forest fires and heat waves in 2007. In California, hundreds of destructive wildland fires occurred from late October to early Novem­ber.¹⁷ Economic losses rose to $2.7 billion, while insured losses totaled $2.3 billion.¹⁸ In August, central and southeastern parts of the United States were hit by a severe heat wave. It was the second warmest August since recording began 113 years ago.¹⁹

In November, the Mexican state of Tabasco and large parts of Chiapas suffered their most devastating floods in 50 years.²⁰ The Mexican authorities declared a state of emergency. About a million people were made homeless and lost all their possessions.²¹

Europe was also hit by natural catastrophes. Winter Storm Kyrill in January and two flood events in the United Kingdom in the summer were classified as "great natural disasters." Economic losses for these events were $18 billion and insured losses $12 billion.²² Very high temperatures of up to 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit) and dryness for several months occurred in western Russia and southeastern Europe during the summer. Greece was hit particularly hard by forest fires. Economic losses there reached $2 billion, the highest figure in Europe for decades.²³

The main drivers for the recent increase in weather-related disasters and related global losses are socioeconomic factors and the changing patterns of extreme events.²⁴ The socioeconomic factors are tied to the rise in population, a better standard of living, the concentration of people and values in large urban settings, and the settlement and industrialization of regions with extremely high exposure levels.²⁵ Cities, metropolitan areas, and mega­cities are very vulnerable to natural catas­trophes and especially to weather-related disasters. More than half of the world will be living in urban areas by the end of 2008.²⁶ And the urban population of developing and emerging countries is rising at an unprecedented rate. This is particularly noteworthy in Africa and Asia, where the urban population is expected to double between 2000 and 2030.²⁷

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emphasizes the link between global warming and the significant likelihood of an increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.²⁸ It is expected, with a more than 66 percent proba­bility, that climate change will lead to warmer (and fewer cold) days and nights over land areas, more heat waves, heavier precipitation, and more areas affected by droughts and more-intense tropical cyclones-all of which could help increase the number of catastrophic weather events.²⁹

Distribution of the impacts of weather-related disasters depends to a large degree on economic development in a country. Between 1980 and 2007, some 46 percent of all natural catastrophes but only 8 percent of the fatalities occurred in high-income countries.³⁰ Thus, 54 percent of the events hit middle-income and low-income countries, which suffered 92 per­cent of the fatalities.³¹ Insurance penetration also depends on the development of the econ­omy. Countries with a very low insurance penetration per capita are often low-income or lower-middle-income countries.³² When weather-related disasters occur, international aid must be funded in an appropriate way for the countries involved. Protection against losses caused by disasters can be realized by such mechanisms as public-private partnerships for governments and micro-insurance solutions for private households.

The Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) is one example of a public-private partnership that has proved highly successful. Founded in 2006 as an initiative of the World Bank, CCRIF offers 16 Caribbean countries financial assistance in the event of hurri­canes and earthquakes.³³ Its purpose is to provide governments with index-based insurance against the losses caused by natural disasters. Private households can benefit from the implementation of micro-insurance solutions-one of several instruments designed to help people handle their personal risks a little better.

Petra Löw is a geographer and a NatCat analyst at the Munich Reinsurance Company.