Nuclear Weapons Treaty Eroding

The number of nuclear warheads held in 2006 by the world’s five full-fledged nuclear powers— the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and China—was estimated at about 27,000.1 (See Figure 1.) Combined, these contain about 5,000 megatons of explosive material—a massive overkill capacity that could destroy human civilization.2 Thankfully, however, the arsenal is down from a peak of about 70,000 in 1986 and is at its lowest level since 1961.3

Nuclear warheads can be delivered to distances near and far by almost 2,200 missiles and bombers, most of which carry multiple warheads.4 Almost 20 years after the end of the cold war, about 2,500 of the world’s nuclear warheads remain on hair-trigger alert, meaning they can be launched within minutes.5

The United States and Russia control about 97 percent of global nuclear arsenals.6 (See Figure 2.) Of roughly 10,000 U.S. warheads, 5,735 are thought to be operational (with the remainder to be dismantled over many years).7 Washington also maintains 5,000 plutonium cores, which can be turned into warheads, as a strategic reserve.8 Of Russia’s 16,000 warheads, 5,830 are estimated to be deployed.9 France, China, and the United Kingdom are believed to have a combined force of roughly 750 warheads.10 (See Figure 3.)

Since 1945, more than 128,000 warheads have been built: more than 70,000 by the United States; 55,000 by the Soviet Union or Russia; 1,200 by the United Kingdom; more than 1,260 by France; and some 600 by China.11

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) bars additional countries from acquiring nuclear weapons and commits states with such arms to move toward complete nuclear disarmament. 12 But the norms enshrined in the NPT are increasingly being ignored.

On one side, the recognized nuclear powers refuse to live up to their commitments and are instead planning to modernize their arsenals. The United States is developing new warheads as well as new missiles and submarines to carry them and is gearing up to restart plutonium production.13 Refurbishing the nuclear weapons manufacturing complex may cost more than $100 billion.14 Russia is introducing a new intercontinental ballistic missile, a new class of strategic submarines, and a new cruise missile.15 China will soon deploy new long-range missiles.16 France is developing nuclear-powered submarines armed with a new type of ballistic missile. 17 And the United Kingdom is planning to acquire a new generation of nuclear missile– carrying submarines at a projected cost of $40 billion.18 Prime Minister Blair justified this project, which will take 17 years to complete, as a needed deterrent against North Korea and Iran.19

On the other side, India and Pakistan have acquired nuclear arms but remain outside the NPT. They are estimated to have built about 110 warheads between them and have sufficient fissile material for perhaps another 85–110.20 Israel will not officially confirm that it possesses nuclear weapons, but experts estimate the country has 60–85 warheads and fissile material stocks that are equivalent to 115–190 warheads.21

North Korea announced in early 2005 that it possessed nuclear weapons and said in October 2006 that it had carried out a nuclear test.22 Meanwhile, questions abound as to whether Iran’s nuclear program is of a purely civilian nature or is intended to produce weapons.23 When Iran rejected a call by the U.N. Security Council in July 2006 to halt its uranium enrichment program, the Council imposed limited sanctions in December.24

A distinct danger of escalating tensions remains. A variety of observers and analysts are afraid that the United States and Israel, acting alone or jointly, might conduct air strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities.25

Even as they warn other nations to renounce possession of nuclear arms, the five recognized nuclear powers continue to insist that their arsenals are indispensable to their security. This is an invitation to other governments to break out of the NPT regime. The integrity of the NPT received another blow when the United States signed a treaty on civilian nuclear cooperation with India that effectively allows that country to step up its nuclear arms manufacturing, even though the government still rejects the NPT.26