Bali Conference, Day 10: Is skepticism contagious?

It starts innocently enough. “You know science isn’t a consensus process.” Sure, I’m following you. Then, the waters are tested. “You know Mr. Gore made some mistakes in his film.” Okay, sure, Nobel Laureate Gore made some simplifications. Then, bam! “This whole global warming business is sure a crock of #@$!”

Whoa! Stop the train; we just sailed past my stop.

Really? A climate change skeptic? Here? It’s so novel that I find the sensation growing within me is not outrage but glee. It’s like finding the last item on a scavenger hunt. It doesn’t matter that the item isn’t particularly desirable. It’s simply the last one on the list. The experience is complete. With so few skeptics left, I’m lucky I found one. So please excuse me if, after this chance encounter at the breakfast buffet, the rest of the events of my day were a bit lackluster.

The high-level portion of the Bali conference began today, with a flood of “your excellencies” and “esteemed ladies and gentlemen.” If guns and speeches were the answer to climate change, then we’d be well on our way to a solution. The quantity of both of these has risen dramatically today. Yet somehow, I’m less than comforted.

At this point, the speeches sound quite similar. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon calls climate change the “defining challenge of our age.” Dr. Pachauri, head of the IPCC, points out that the costs of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 parts per million are manageable, akin to delaying the economic growth realized in 2030 by a mere one year. UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer describes the three necessary outcomes from this conference: a formal negotiation process, an ambitious agenda, and a 2009 deadline. Everybody points to the need for immediate action.

Midway through the day, I retreated to more constructive arenas. The European Union hosted a discussion of the future of the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) in which government officials, researchers, and business representatives jointly acknowledged the successes of the EU-ETS. I met with a working group to brainstorm on options for a post-2012 Clean Development Mechanism. And I rounded off the day at a reception attended by members of the California delegation—the avant garde of U.S. climate action—and the Centre for Social Markets—a new Worldwatch partner and thought leader on India’s climate action. It was a nice way to end a day that began with so much skepticism.