Bush Sets Goal of Halting U.S. Emissions Growth by 2025

U.S. President George W. Bush outlined a slightly new approach to global climate change on Wednesday in preparation for a meeting of the world's eight largest industrialized nations (G-8) in Paris this weekend.

Bush stated a new national goal of halting U.S. growth in greenhouse gas emissions by 2025. The announcement is the first pledge by the Bush administration to curb emissions by a specific year, although the timeline is more lenient than what most other industrialized nations have agreed upon.

In his speech, Bush supported incentives for "lower-emission technologies," such as nuclear power, carbon capture and sequestration, and renewable energy sources like solar or wind. "The incentives should be carbon-weighted to make lower-emission power sources less expensive relative to higher-emissions sources," he stated. "[T]hat will help lower costs and scale up availability."

The president said he opposes taxes, "duplicate mandates," and drastic emission cuts; therefore, he ruled out a national carbon tax or cap-and-trade scheme. He also said the energy incentives "should be technology-neutral because the government should not be picking winners and losers." Before Bush's speech, Jim Connaughton, chairman of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, said the president would only speak in generalities because specifics "should be discussed in a rational approach with the electrical sector."

According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation are expected to climb 1 percent each year between 2006 and 2030.

Meanwhile, the European Union has committed to cutting emissions 20 percent below 1990 levels by 2020. And as part of the Kyoto Protocol, Russia, Japan, and Canada agreed to reduce their emissions at least 5 percent below 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012.

The stark contrast between the U.S. position and most of the industrialized world has stirred a bitter reaction from non-governmental groups and international leaders. In a prepared statement, South African environment minister Marthinus Van Schalkwyk said, "The current U.S. administration is isolated. It is them against the overwhelming majority of the world, developed and developing countries alike." Among the developing countries that have committed to significant greenhouse gas reductions is Costa Rica, which plans to become "carbon neutral."

Numerous organizations have called for an 80 percent reduction in global emissions (below 2000 levels) by 2050, including the Union of Concerned Scientists. The group's policy director, Alden Meyer, responded to the Bush speech by saying, "Instead of working with Congress and the international community, the president is trying to derail their efforts.... He should do us all a favor and step aside."

The president's announcement comes at a time when the U.S. Senate is debating climate legislation, which is expected to be voted on later this year. David Sandalow, a Brookings Institute senior fellow who directed U.S. climate negotiations under the Clinton Administration, also said the Bush proposal is aimed at derailing Congressional legislation. 

The so-called "Major Economies Meeting" will be held this weekend in Paris to coordinate the upcoming G-8 Summit in July, which will feature a climate segment. Reid Detchon, executive director of energy and climate for the United Nations Foundation, predicts Bush will be disappointed at how the world leaders gathered at the event receive his proposals. "The need for action is much more urgent that what he described," Detchon said. "For the U.S. to say we're seeking a zero cut by 2025 is just not going to be satisfactory."

Many environmental groups, such as the World Wildlife Fund and Friends of the Earth, said they are basically ignoring Bush's comments and are instead focusing their efforts on what the next U.S. president must achieve by the Copenhagen meetings of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, scheduled for November 2009. 

Democratic presidential candidates Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama have both adopted the Union of Concerned Scientists' plan for an 80 percent emissions reduction by 2050. Republican candidate, Sen. John McCain, supports a 30 percent reduction from 2004 levels by that year. An advisor to Obama, Daniel Kammen, said that within the first 100 days of the next presidency, whoever is elected must restore the international credibility of the United States as a concerned player in the fight against climate change.

Kammen said that Bush, despite being criticized as a lame-duck president, should still take stronger action. "We need to make dramatic cuts by 2050.... What we need is a plan to get there, and not throw our hands up in the air," he noted. Kammen, who directs the University of California at Berkeley's Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory, added that, "The president could play a bigger role than anyone on Earth, and yet he's chosen not to."

Christopher Flavin, president of the Worldwatch Institute, agrees with Bush's view that emerging technologies are essential to solve climate change, but he believes the president's proposal will not go far enough to expand clean energy markets. "Industry will invest in renewable and efficiency technologies, but only if government provides the needed incentives," Flavin said. "Today, the European Union and China are doing a better job at this than the United States is."

Ben Block is a staff writer at the Worldwatch Institute who covers everything environmental for Eye on Earth. He can be reached at bblock@worldwatch.org.