China Low on a Strategic Reserve: Pork

After a respiratory virus swept through China's pig herds, and a series of natural disasters crippled domestic farmlands last year, the world's largest hog producer was forced to look abroad to feed its growing appetite for pork. 

The result was the largest single-year import of pork by one country. China's purchase was nearly double the previous record, set by Japan in 2005, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

"The first half of 2008 was astounding," said USMEF spokesman Joe Schuele. "The situation shows what a remarkable impact China can have on our products."

The spike also reflects rising interdependence in a world hungry for meat and other animal products. Greater wealth throughout much of the developing world is leading more people to consume beef, pork, and chicken than ever before.

"Meat consumption will continue to increase, especially in rural China," said Qingbin Wang, an economics professor at the University of Vermont. "When people have more income, they will eat more meat, especially pork."

A virus known as "blue ear pig disease" appeared in China in 2007 and spread across 25 of the country's 33 provinces and regions by early 2008. The pandemic was compounded by the effects of a deadly ice storm and the earthquake in Sichuan province, which killed millions of pigs and led to the slaughter of many more due to a lack of feed supplies. Meanwhile, rising feed costs have dissuaded many farmers from raising pigs.

In response, China lowered its pork import duty by 50 percent and aggressively pursued foreign supplies. China imported nearly 2 million tons of pork last year, up from only 700,000 tons in 2007, according to USMEF data [PDF]. The European Union, Brazil, and the United States supplied most of the imports.

In China, where the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that 61 million tons of pig meat was produced before the virus outbreak, pig herds appear to be recovering. Supported with government subsidies, the number of pigs for sale had increased nearly 7 percent and the sow population grew at double the rate compared to the end of 2007.

"Chinese pork prices have stabilized," said Joel Haggard, senior vice president for USMEF's Asia-Pacific Region. "If they remain stable, it is unlikely the Chinese government will purchase more pork for their strategic reserve."

But the blue ear virus, also known as porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), may further threaten supplies. The possibility of pig illness will likely increase as China transitions to concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs), or factory farms, to feed a growing population.

"History tells us that PRRS, which has probably always been in China, will continue to adversely affect production," said Roger Campbell, CEO of the Australia-based Pork Cooperative Research Center. "Further mutations of the virus could further reduce production and the supply of domestic pork or...affect the certainty of domestic supply."

The spike in Chinese pork imports coincided with a tumultuous year for global grain prices - the FAO cereal prices index climbed nearly 20 percent through the first half of 2008 and has since fallen.

China's role in last summer's high food prices remains unclear, but further constraints on available grain supplies are expected as meat diets become more popular in the years ahead. More than 13 kilograms of feed is needed to raise each kilogram of pork [PDF].

Across the developing world, people eat about 30 kilograms of meat per capita annually - more than twice the quantity of 25 years ago. Meat production is on the rise nearly everywhere, but especially in East Asia and South America. Pork constitutes 39 percent of global meat production, the highest share of any animal, according to the FAO.

Meat production per person has remained relatively consistent in industrialized nations since it peaked at 83 kilograms in 1990, according to the Worldwatch Institute.

The global economic recession may reduce near-term meat consumption rates as consumers opt for cheaper meals. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that Americans will consume on average 98 kilograms of meat per capita this year - a nearly 0.4 kilogram drop from a January forecast.

In the long term, however, the FAO predicts that nearly twice as much meat will be produced in 2050 than in 2008, reaching a projected total of more than 465 million tons.

The effects of the meat boom on the world's climate could be significant. Already, livestock are responsible for 18 percent of carbon dioxide emissions and 37 percent of global emissions of methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Meat production also requires ample water resources. An average adult pig requires 50 liters per day on an industrial farm, and most water returns to the environment in the form of pollutant-laden manure and wastewater, according to the FAO.

Ben Block is a staff writer with the Worldwatch Institute. He can be reached at bblock@worldwatch.org.

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