Climate of Risk

Climate warming demands fresh thinking about security policy.

Climate change may very well be the biggest challenge our civilization has ever faced. Left unaddressed, the effects on natural systems, biodiversity, food security, and habitability will likely be calamitous and the economic penalties severe.

And in the absence of increased cooperation, runaway climate change may well trigger a whole new age of conflict. We live, after all, in a world marked by profound inequalities, unresolved grievances, and tremendous disparities of power. Ruled by competitive nation-states and rootless global corporations, our planet bristles with arms of all calibers. Under such circumstances, the additional stress imposed by climate change could have tremendous repercussions for human wellbeing, safety, and security.

Nations around the world, but particularly the weakest countries and communities, confront a multitude of pressures. Many face a debilitating combination of rising competition for resources, severe environmental breakdown, the resurgence of infectious diseases, poverty and growing wealth disparities, demographic pressures, and joblessness and livelihood insecurity. Climate change is certain to intensify many, if not all, of these challenges. More frequent and intense droughts, floods, and storms will play havoc with harvests and weaken food security. Extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and spreading disease vectors could conceivably undermine the long-term habitability of some areas. Together with reduced economic viability, the result could be escalating social discontent and large-scale involuntary population movements, severely testing national and international institutions. Possible conflict constellations revolve around resource access, natural disaster impacts, and refugee and migrant flows (see figure below).