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State of the World 2005 Trends and Facts - Water Conflict and Security Cooperation

“Water management is, by definition, conflict management.”

Growing Number of International Basins

“Since water flows, use of a river or aquifer in one place will affect (and be affected by) its use in another, possibly distant, place.”

In 1978 the United Nations listed 214 international basins (in the last official count). Today there are 263, largely due to the “internationalization” of basins through political changes like the breakup of the Soviet Union and the Balkan states, as well as access to improved mapping technology.

International basins that include political boundaries of two or more countries cover 45.3 percent of Earth’s land surface, host about 40 percent of the world’s population, and account for approximately 60 percent of global river flow. And the number is growing: in 1978 the United Nations listed 214 international basins (in the last official count). Today there are 263, due largely to the “internationalization” of basins through political changes like the breakup of the Soviet Union and the Balkan states, as well as access to improved mapping technology.

Strikingly, territory in 145 nations falls within international basins, and 33 countries are located almost entirely within these basins. The high level of interdependence is illustrated by the number of countries sharing each international basin; the dilemmas posed by basins like the Danube (shared by 17 countries) or the Nile (10 countries) can be easily imagined.

The high number of shared rivers, combined with increasing water scarcity for growing populations, leads many politicians and headlines to trumpet coming “water wars.” In 1995, for example, World Bank vice president Ismail Serageldin claimed that “the wars of the next century will be about water.” The only problem with this scenario is lack of evidence.

No “Water Wars”

“No states have gone to war specifically over water resources since the city-states of Lagash and Umma fought each other in the Tigris-Euphrates basin in 2500 B.C.” …

The historical record proves that international water disputes do get resolved, even among enemies, and even as conflicts erupt over other issues.

Researchers at Oregon State University have compiled a dataset of every reported interaction—conflictive or cooperative— between two or more nations that was driven by water. They found that despite the potential for dispute in international basins, the incidence of acute conflict over international water resources is overwhelmed by the rate of cooperation.

The last 50 years have seen only 37 acute disputes (those involving violence), and 30 of those occurred between Israel and one of its neighbors. Non-Mideast cases account for only 5 acute events, while during the same period 157 treaties were negotiated and signed. The total number of water-related events between nations is also weighted toward cooperation: 507 conflict-related events versus 1,228 cooperative, implying that violence over water is neither strategically rational, hydrographically effective, nor economically viable.

Despite the fiery rhetoric of politicians—aimed more often at their own constituencies than at the enemy—most actions taken over water are mild. Of all the events, some 43 percent fall between mild verbal support and mild verbal hostility. If the next levels—official verbal support and official verbal hostility—are added in, verbal events account for 62 percent of the total. Thus almost two-thirds of all events are only verbal and more than two-thirds of these had no official sanction.

Water Sharing in the Middle East

“Despite fears of water-related violence, Israel has maintained basic cooperation with Jordan and the Palestinians over their shared waters.”

The most severe water scarcity in the world is in the Middle East. The deficit is particularly alarming in the Jordan River basin and the adjacent West Bank aquifers, where Israeli, Palestinian, and Jordanian water claims intersect. In Gaza and the West Bank, the annual availability of water is well below 100 cubic meters of renewable water per person, while Israel has less than 300 and Jordan around 100 cubic meters, all far below the standard for water scarcity, 1,000 cubic meters.

Population growth, a result both of high birth rates among Palestinians and Jordanians and of immigration to Israel, increasingly pressures the already scarce water resources and raises the risk of water-related conflicts. Israeli settlers in the West Bank and Gaza receive a larger share of the available water than the Palestinians, further complicating the situation. Despite fears of water-related violence, Israel has maintained basic cooperation with Jordan and the Palestinians over their shared waters. This was true even after the second Intifada began in September 2000. Low-level water cooperation between Israel and Jordan—under U.N. auspices—extends back to the early 1950s, even though both countries were formally at war. This interaction helped build trust and a shared set of rules and norms, which were later formalized within the peace agreement between Israel and Jordan in 1994.

That agreement established a Joint Water Committee for coordination and problem solving that helped resolve disagreements over allocations. A 1995 interim agreement regulates Israeli-Palestinian water issues such as protection of sewage systems. For the Palestinians, the existing agreement is unsatisfactory from both a rights and an availability perspective. Talks aimed at a final agreement are part of the overall negotiating process and, given the political stalemate and ongoing violence, are not likely to be completed any time soon. Nevertheless, Israel and the Palestinians agree that cooperation over their shared water is indispensable.

Moving Towards Cooperative Water Management

“Cooperative water management mechanisms...can anticipate conflict and solve smoldering disputes, provided that all stakeholders are included in the decision making process and given the means...to act as equal partners.”

Cooperative management mechanisms can reduce conflict potential by:

  • providing a forum for joint negotiations, thus ensuring that all existing and potentially conflicting interests are taken into account during decision making;
  • considering different perspectives and interests to reveal new management options and offer win-win solutions;
  • building trust and confidence through collaboration and joint fact-finding;
  • and making decisions that are much more likely to be accepted by all stakeholders, even if consensus cannot be reached.

On the local level, traditional community-based mechanisms are already well suited to specific local conditions and are thus more easily adopted by the community. Examples include the chaffa committee, a traditional water management institution of the Boran people in the Horn of Africa, or the Arvari Parliament, an informal decisionmakingdecision making and conflict-resolution body based on traditional customs of the small Arvari River in Rajasthan, India.

On the international level, river basin commissions with representatives from all riparian states have been successfully involved in joint riparian water resources management. Especially in transboundary basins, achieving cooperation has been a drawn-out and costly process. Recognizing this, the World Bank agreed to facilitate the Nile Basin Initiative negotiation process for 20 years.

Cooperative water management is a challenging issue that requires time and commitment. Nevertheless, mutually beneficial integration and cooperation around water resources can be an effective means to head off conflict and to support sustainable peace among states and groups within societies.

Harnessing Wild Rivers: Who Pays the Price?

Since World War II, some 45,000 large dams have been built, generating an estimated 20 percent of the world’s electricity and providing irrigation to fields that produce some 10 percent of the world’s food. Yet for the 40–80 million people whose lives and livelihoods were rooted in the banks and valleys of wild rivers, dam development has profoundly altered the health, economy, and culture of communities and entire nations.

Because dams are generally situated near the ancient homes of indigenous nations, it is ultimately rural and ethnic minorities far from the central corridors of power who are typically forced to pay the price. Ill-considered development plans, forced evictions, and resettlement with inadequate compensation generate conditions and conflicts that threaten the security of individual and group rights to culture, self-determination, livelihood, and life itself.

In a growing number of instances, the efforts by dam-affected peoples to document experiences and protest injury, damage, and loss have succeeded in producing some measure of remedy. In documenting the many failures to address rights and resources properly, dam-affected communities have taken the lead in challenging the assumptions that drive development decisionmakingdecision making and in demanding institutional accountability. Their demands for “reparations” are much more than cries for compensation.

They are demands for meaningful remedy, which means that free, prior, and informed consent of residents is obtained before financing is approved and dam construction initiated, that scientific assessments and plans are developed with the equitable participation of members of the affected community, that governments and financiers respect the rights of indigenous peoples to self-determination—including the right to say no, and that new projects are not funded until any remaining problems from past projects are addressed.


Discussion Questions

  1. What can donor nations and international aid organizations do to promote water cooperation globally?
  2. How can cooperative water mechanisms reduce conflict potential?
  3. What are some examples of successful water cooperation on the local level? International level?

Further information as well as the references for this material is available in State of the World 2005.