Matters of Scale - Future of Risk
Number of people in Washington, D.C. who were murdered by anthrax poisoning
between September 11 and November 9 | 2 |
Number of people murdered by other means in the same city during the same period | 53 |
|
| |
Number of U.S. residents who would die of anthrax in the coming year if the October 2001
rate (when anthrax became the top news story) continued | 48 |
Number of children in Afghanistan that the United Nations estimates may die this winter
from pneumonia and diarrhea | 100,000 |
|
| |
Probability that someone who flies once a month will die in a commercial airplane crash in the
coming year in the United States (where concern about terrorism has cut flying sharply), if
terrorists hijack and crash one plane every month | 1 in 540,000 |
Probability of dying of a heart attack in the United States (where tens of millions of people fail
to exercise or maintain healthy diets despite the risk), in the same year | 1 in 400 |
|
| |
Odds of a U.S. resident being killed by terrorists in a shopping mall, in the coming year,
if the person spends two hours a week in malls and if terrorists destroy one mall (and
everyone in it) each week | 1 in 1,500,000 |
Odds of the average U.S. resident being killed in that year by cancer | 1 in 600 |
|
| |
Sources: Allan Lengel, "D.C. Views Differ on Post-Sept. 11 Crime Increase," Washington Post, 12 November 2001; CDC Confirmed
Cases of Anthrax, Centers for Disease Control ; "AP News Anthrax
Timeline," Associated Press, viewed 15 November 2001; Michael L. Rothschild, University of Wisconsin,
"Terrorism and You?the Real Odds," Washington Post, 25 November 2001.