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Beyond livelihood and human security impacts, sudden stresses caused by disaster may strain the social and economic structures of a community, deepening existing inequalities and triggering conflicts.Not only are disasters, as a 2005 Oxfam International report put it, “profoundly discriminatory in their impact on people” (with factors like gender, age, and income determining who will be most affected), but human reactions often reinforce their unequal impacts.1 How well a government responds has important political implications. Competent disaster management can improve an agency’s image and efficacy, while an inept or indifferent attitude toward disaster will likely erode citizens’ trust.
Aceh, Sri Lanka, and Kashmir have all experienced conflict and then disaster. Their starkly different post-disaster trajectories offer critical lessons for conflict resolution, exemplifying the diversity of roles that the government, military, disaster relief, and conflict resolution communities can play when opportunities for peace arise.
When a massive earthquake struck Kashmir on October 8, 2005, families sprawled across this mountainous territory naturally wanted to make sure that relatives living in nearby towns and villages had survived. But many of them could not reach their kin—and impassable roads were only part of the problem. The quake’s epicenter was near the “Line of Control” (LoC), the ceasefire line that demarcates India and Pakistan’s claims on Kashmir and separates many Kashmiri families.
n the morning after Christmas Day, 2004, several families in the Sri Lankan capital of Colombo were on their way to a festive brunch at a hotel overlooking the Indian Ocean. On their way, they heard an emergency broadcast over the car radio, reporting that large waves had hit the eastern and southern coasts. They watched as a strange haziness developed on the horizon and ocean undulations left boats damaged in the nearby harbor. Even though it took two hours for the tsunami waves to travel from the quake’s epicenter to Sri Lankan shores, disaster came to the country quite unexpectedly.
On December 26, 2004, fighters with the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, or GAM) looked on helplessly from mountain redoubts as tsunami waves washed over their coastal village below, killing nearly every inhabitant. Although the tsunami that devastated much of Aceh—a province of Indonesia embroiled in conflict for almost 30 years—did not end fighting right away, it helped kick-start successful peace negotiations.
Disasters provoked by storms, floods, droughts, earthquakes, and other hazards often compromise human security, exacting a heavy economic toll and undermining livelihoods. These effects can be temporary, but in many cases disaster also impairs the long-term habitability or economic viability of the affected area. While the severity of disaster is an important factor, the timeliness and adequacy of relief and rebuilding programs, and the resilience of affected communities and societies, will ultimately shape the future of the area.
In recent years, the world’s attention has been pulled rapidly from one disaster event to the next.With an average of nearly one natural disaster per day—348 recorded each year over the past decade—it is no wonder that governments, aid agencies, local organizations, businesses, and citizens are hard-pressed to keep up with these calamities.1* (See Figure 1.) To qualify as a disaster, as defined by the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, a natural hazard must kill 10 or more people, affect 100 or more people, or necessitate a declaration of emergency or call for international assistance.
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