Food

by Katie Carrus

Global egg production doubled between 1990 and 2005.1 By then, some 64 million tons of eggs were produced worldwide (less than 1 percent more than in 2004).2 (See Figure 1.) Today there are approximately 4.93 billion egg-laying hens in the world, each capable of producing up to 300 eggs per year.3 By 2015, world egg production is expected to reach 72 million tons, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).4

While egg production has increased in the United States, Japan, India, and Mexico over the past four decades, most of the growth has been due to a 10-fold increase in eggs in developing countries in response to rising incomes and growing populations.5 Between 1990 and 2005, China accounted for 64 percent of the growth in world egg production.6 By 2005 this one country produced nearly 44 percent of the world’s eggs—28.7 million tons—more than five times as many as the next largest producer.7 (See Figure 2.) And this trend is expected to continue, with output there predicted to rise by 23 percent by 2015.8

By 2000, developing countries in Asia were producing twice as many eggs as all industrial countries.9 Output in the United States grew 13 percent between 1995 and 2000, compared with 34 percent in China during the same period.10 And in some countries, such as the United Kingdom, Japan, Hungary, and Denmark, fewer eggs were produced in 2000 than in 1998.11 The growth rate throughout the industrial world between 1961 and 2000 was quite low: 1.6 percent.12 Over the next 15 years, egg production in the industrial world is expected to increase from 18 million to 20 million tons, due in part to food saturation and overconsumption.13

People in industrial countries eat about twice as many eggs as people in developing countries—approximately 226 eggs per person per year.14 Yet only 30 countries are seeing any growth in per capita egg consumption.15 Among these nations are China, Libya, Mexico, Colombia, Turkey, and India.16 Elsewhere, egg consumption is either stable or falling.17 FAO predicts that most future growth in egg consumption will occur in the developing world in places like China, where income and population patterns are still shifting.18

Most egg production in China has transitioned from traditional, scattered, backyard farms to large-scale integrated operations.19 While small farmers once produced most of the eggs for markets for local consumers, largescale, vertically integrated factory farming has become the norm. Producers now typically confine egg-laying hens in small wire “battery” cages stacked in rows in sheds that are the length of a football field.20 Indeed, nearly 60 percent of China’s egg production in 2005 was done on farms with more than 500 layers.21 Taiwan alone produced about 390,000 tons of eggs in 2005 on 1,400 facilities housing on average 40,000 birds each.22

Market concentration and industrial, intensive production methods like these have found favor among Chinese egg industry leaders.23 “Intensification promises to be the right track for China to follow to develop its poultry industry,” noted Hongge Wang, senior economic expert for animal husbandry at the China National Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Service in Beijing.24 The Chinese government has already developed policies to encourage this, such as subsidies for large-scale farms.25

These policies have troubling implications for the environment, human health, and animal welfare. The Chinese State Environmental Protection Administration reports that industrial animal farms have become a major source of pollution, with raw manure being dumped into rivers that are a source of drinking water.26 By 2002, Taihu Lake—a critical part of the Yangtze River delta—had become severely polluted with nitrogen and phosphorus from the untreated waste of industrial poultry farms.27

Avian influenza has ravaged much of the Asian poultry industry since 2003, with egg layer flocks often being more affected than broiler (meat chicken) flocks.28 During the first four months of 2006, a commercial layer chick in China on average cost 24¢, a 12.6-percent decrease from the same period in the preceding year due to bird flu–related market disruptions.29 In Thailand, efforts to stop the spread of avian flu led to the destruction of almost half of the country’s 30 million egg-laying hens between November 2003 and February 2004.30

The industrial-style, intensive confinement of egg-laying hens in Asia has been strongly implicated in the epidemic’s spread. The International Food Policy Research Institute notes that “the critical issue is the keeping [of] more and more animals in smaller and smaller spaces.”31 According to FAO, “once high-density industrial poultry areas become affected, infection can be explosively spread within the units, and the very high quantities of virus produced may be easily carried to other units, to humans, and into the environment.”32

In addition, the intensive production methods that have enabled the dramatic surge in global egg production fall far short of any reasonable standard for animal welfare. Most hens on factory-style farms around the world live their entire lives in battery cages that frustrate most of their basic natural behaviors, including spreading their wings, walking freely, and nesting.33 Due to growing consumer and governmental awareness of inherent animal welfare problems with the cage system, this production method is being phased out in the European Union.34 And a growing consumer movement in the United States is steadily encouraging better standards for the country’s 300 million egg-laying hens.35

Similar efforts are under way in Asia, but less regulated markets there have caused the factory farm egg industry to grow.36 As public support for intensive confinement practices begins to dwindle in the West, large-scale egg producers are looking to Asia, where they can conduct business with little interference from individuals and groups concerned about animal welfare and environmental impacts.37

Includes the following charts and graphs
Global Egg Production, 1990-2005
Top Egg Producing Countries, 1990-2005

Notes
Please purchase this trend to gain access to the fully referenced endnotes and figures.

by Brian Halweil

People around the world ate about 156 million tons of seafood in 2004, the last year for which there are data.1 This is a relatively large jump from the preceding year—almost 9 million tons—about half of which was satisfied by a rebound in certain wild fish populations, with the other half representing continued rapid growth in fish farming.2 (See Figure 1.) (Since seafood is generally consumed fresh or within a few months of being caught, statistics on consumption and production are nearly identical.)

Since 1950, seafood consumption has jumped almost eight times.3 This rise in global consumption comes even as seafood becomes scarcer. In 2006, scientists tracking historical changes in the world’s major fish populations estimated that all major fish stocks could be commercially extinct—less than 90 percent of their historic levels—by the middle of this century if current trends continue.4

On average, each person ate three times as much seafood in 2004 as in 1950 (see Figure 2)—but the amount and type of seafood consumed vary widely.5 The Chinese consume about a fifth of the world’s seafood, eating per person roughly five times as much seafood as they did in 1961.6 Total Chinese fish consumption has increased more than 10-fold in that time.7 (See Figure 3.) Over the same period, U.S. seafood consumption jumped 2.5 times.8 The Japanese consume the most seafood per person, about 66 kilograms each year.9 In Europe, the average person eats about 26 kilograms a year, slightly more than the average Chinese does.10

For people in wealthy nations, seafood is an increasingly popular health food option; given its high levels of fatty acids and trace minerals, nutritionists recognize it as essential to the development and maintenance of good neurological function, not to mention reduced risk of cancer, heart disease, and other debilitating conditions.11 In poorer nations in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, people are also eating more fish, if they can afford it or can fish for it themselves. 12 For more than 1 billion people, mostly in Asia, fish supply 30 percent of the protein they consume, compared with just 6 percent worldwide.13

Consumers in Europe, the United States, and Japan favor larger, predatory fish, like tuna and cod, the populations of which are most endangered.14 Most salmon and shrimp, two other popular items, are now raised in farms that use several times more fish as feed than they actually produce.15

In contrast, poorer people tend to depend on smaller fish that are lower on the food chain, including herbivorous farmed fish like catfish, carp, and tilapia, as well as oysters, clams, mussels, and sea vegetables.16 In China, which raises 70 percent of the world’s farmed fish, fish farming accounts for nearly two thirds of total fish consumption and is dominated by such herbivorous species.17

With the depletion of wild fish schools, virtually all of the growth in the global catch today comes from farmed fish.18 Whereas wild harvests have stagnated over the last 10 years, fish farming’s output has more than doubled to 59.4 million tons, accounting for nearly 40 percent of the global harvest.19

Although farmers have been raising herbivorous fish in ponds for millennia, the relatively recent move toward raising tuna, salmon, striped bass, shrimp, and other carnivores in pens consumes a growing share of the world’s fish. Species like anchovy, herring, capelin, and whiting are reduced to feed for animals or fish farms. In 1948, only 7.7 percent of total landings turned into fishmeal and fish oil.20 Currently, 37 percent of global marine landings—about 32 million tons a year—is reduced to feed, eliminating an important historical and future source of human sustenance.21

Fish also sustain people as a livelihood, employing about 38 million people worldwide. 22 Of these, 95 percent are smaller fishers and fish farmers in Asia and Africa.23 Smaller vessels employ more people per ton of fish caught, and they also wield more exacting and less damaging fishing tools—hand lines rather than nets dragged across the bottom—a characteristic that will be important as countries try to maintain their fishing communities even as there are fewer fish to catch.24

Includes the following charts and graphs
World Fish Harvest, 1950-2004
World Fish Harvest Per Person, 1950-2004
Seafood Consumption in Top Four Countries or Region, 1961 and 2003

Notes
Please purchase this trend to gain access to the fully referenced endnotes and figures.

by Sean Charles

The world soybean harvest reached a record 214 million tons in 2005, the latest year with data, an increase of 4.4 percent from 2004.1 (See Figure 1.) The United States, Brazil, Argentina, and China accounted for 90 percent of that output.2 (See Figure 2.)

The United States is the largest producer of soybeans, with an output of 83.4 million tons in 2005.3 Over the past 25 years, however, its market dominance has eroded.4 The United States produced 60 percent of the world’s soybeans in 1980 but only 39 percent in 2005.5 The country’s declining role as an exporter can be traced to increased competition with South American producers, growing domestic competition with corn, the production of biodiesel, and the resistance in some markets to genetically modified (GM) soybeans.6

Soybeans enrich the soil with nitrogen, which can then be used by other plants, making them beneficial for crop rotations.7 In the United States, this has usually meant planting soybeans and corn in alternating years. But high demand for corn for ethanol production and distiller’s grains (a high-protein animal feed) has driven many farmers to plant two years of corn for every year of soybeans.8 This in large part explains the 7-percent decline in total U.S. soybean harvested area in 2005.9 Globally, however, harvested area stayed stable at 92 million hectares.10 (See Figure 3.)

Brazil produces a quarter of the soybeans worldwide and in 2003 became the largest exporter.11 Its success in this field is largely due to vast tracts of undeveloped land.12 The 11 states of the center-west and Amazonia regions, which include the cerrado—the world’s most diverse savanna—and large portions of the Amazon rainforest, doubled production from 2000 to 2005.13

Production in Argentina is growing even faster, with an increased output of 216 percent since 1995.14 Rapid South American soybean expansion is creating mono-crop plantations at a rate that endangers 22 million hectares of tropical forest and savanna in the next 20 years.15 Global growth in wealth and in industrial agriculture has resulted in greater consumption of meat and convenience foods, raising demand for soybeans as animal feed and as soybean oil (the most widely used vegetable oil).16 Soybean meal, the protein-rich solid produced in the soybean crushing and oil extraction process, accounts for 65 percent of the world’s protein feed.17 The majority of soy meal is used for animal feed, including 98 percent in the United States.18

Increased reliance on soy meal for industrial agriculture to supply China’s huge and increasingly urban population, coupled with the growing scarcity of agricultural land, has made China reliant on imported soybeans.19 Even though soybean cultivation began in China 5,000 years ago, in 2005 the country imported 74 percent of its soy.20 After entering the World Trade Organization in 2002, China reduced trade restrictions and doubled its imports to 21.4 million tons in 2003—accounting for 55 percent of its consumption.21 Soy meal demand in China and in Southeast Asia is reliant on poultry production, so success in controlling avian flu is expected to lead to further demand increases.22

Genetically modified soybeans were introduced to the market in 1996 to be resistant to the pesticide glyphosate, commonly sold as Roundup.23 In 2005, “Roundup Ready” soybeans accounted for 87 percent of the crop in the United States and 98 percent in Argentina. Similarly, GM soybeans accounted for 41 percent of Brazil’s harvested area—an 88 percent increase from 2004.24 Though the European Union was the top soy meal importer in 2005, it imports very little soybean oil for human consumption because of mandatory GM labeling and public stigma surrounding genetic engineering. 25

Sustained demand increases are expected for soybeans for animal feed, vegetable oil, and biodiesel, with a projected growth of 60 percent by 2025.26 In 2005, soybean oil accounted for 92 percent of the 250 million liters of biodiesel made in the United States, a recent use that is bound to grow as Americans turn to biofuels to replace imported oil.27 Similarly, 59 percent of Brazilian biodiesel came from soy.28

Includes the following charts and graphs
World Soybean Production, 1961-2005
World Soybean Production Per Person, 1961-2005
Soybean Production, Top Seven Countries, 2005
World Soybean Harvested Area, 1961-2005

Notes
Please purchase this trend to gain access to the fully referenced endnotes and figures.

by Brian Halweil

In 2006, world grain production dropped to 1,994 million tons—a fall of about 55 million tons, or some 2.7 percent, from the previous year.¹ (See Figure 1.)

Economists, hunger activists, and agricultural researchers track world grain production because people still primarily eat foods made from grain. On average, humans get about 48 percent of their calories from grains, a share that has declined just slightly from 50 percent over the last four decades.² Grains, particularly maize (corn) in conjunction with soybeans, also form the primary feedstock for industrial livestock production.

Global grain production per person dropped from 318 kilograms in 2005 to 305 kilograms in 2006.³ (See Figure 2.) But output per person varies dramatically by region. For instance, it stands at roughly 13,000 calories per day in the United States, most of which is fed to livestock, compared with 2,700 calories in China and just 670 calories in Zimbabwe.⁴ (One kilogram of grain contains about 3,500 calories.)

Production of the three major grain crops— wheat, corn, and rice—all declined in 2006, as the world’s major growing areas suffered poor weather.⁵ Wheat output in 2006 stood at roughly 592 million tons, down almost 33 million tons—5.3 percent—from 2005.⁶ This is the largest reduction since 1994 and was provoked by severe drought and heat across Australia and in Europe’s wheat belt, as well as unseasonably cold dry weather during planting time in North America and the Black Sea region.⁷ Global stocks of wheat declined by 16 percent since 2005, corn stocks were down nearly 20 percent, and total stocks, including rice, dropped by 17 percent.⁸ (See Figure 3.)

Typhoons, drought, flooding, diseases, and insect attacks marred the 2006 rice crop across Asia.⁹ Global production fell to 421 million tons, slightly down from 422 million tons in 2005.¹⁰ In India, the 2006 monsoon season, which ended in September, was erratic; several important rice-producing states, such as Assam, Tamil Nadu, and Uttar Pradesh, received less than the normal amount of precipitation, while rainfall was above average in Orissa.¹¹ Crops in China were also affected by droughts, floods, and disease problems, which kept production nearly the same as in 2005 despite larger plantings.¹² The world corn crop in 2006 was estimated at 694 million tons, 2.2 percent below the previous year, due to smaller crops in Argentina, South Africa, and the United States—which alone is responsible for 40 percent of the global crop.¹³

At the same time, global demand for corn jumped due to the rapid expansion in cornbased ethanol production, primarily in the United States. The amount of corn used for ethanol there has grown from just 6 percent of domestic production in 2000 to an estimated 20 percent in 2006, or roughly 55 million tons, about the same amount as is exported.¹⁴ There are currently 110 ethanol plants operating in 20 states across the country, with 79 additional plants under construction, which will more than double national capacity.¹⁵

By late 2006, rising demand combined with the poor grain harvests in key producing nations to push world grain prices to their highest levels in a decade.¹⁶ In November, the U.S. hard wheat export price averaged $219 a ton, up about one third from the previous year.¹⁷ The U.S. export price for No. 2 yellow maize averaged $164 per ton, up about 70 percent from the previous year.¹⁸

In the case of corn and wheat, these high prices will likely encourage farmers to plant more land in crops in 2007. But most analysts suspect that if the use of corn for ethanol continues to grow at the current pace, it may take more than one good crop season for prices to retreat significantly from their current highs.¹⁹

According to the latest Food Outlook from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, global expenditures on imported foodstuffs in 2006 could reach a historic high of $383 billion, more than 2 percent above the previous year’s level.²⁰ Import bills for developing countries are expected to have been almost 5 percent higher in 2006, mainly as a result of price increases rather than an increase in the actual volume of food imports.²¹ Higher prices will force many countries to cut back on food imports.

Includes the following charts and graphs
World Grain Production, 1961-2006
World Grain Production Per Person, 1961-2006
World Grain Stocks, 1961-2006

Notes
Please purchase this trend to gain access to the fully referenced endnotes and figures.