Food

Following several years of declining harvests, the world’s farmers reaped a record 2.316 billion tons of grain in 2007.¹ (See Figure 1.) Despite this jump of 95 million tons, or about 4 percent, over the previous year, commodity analysts estimate that voracious global demand will consume all of this increase and prevent governments from replenishing cereal stocks that are at their lowest level in 30 years.²

The global grain harvest has nearly tripled since 1961, during a time when world population doubled.³ As a result, the amount of grain produced per person grew from 285 kilograms in 1961 to a peak of 376 kilograms in 1986.⁴ (See Figure 2.) In recent decades, as the growth in grain production has matched population growth, per capita production has hovered around 350 kilograms.⁵

But output per person varies dramatically by region. For instance, it stands at roughly 1,230 kilograms per year in the United States, most of which is fed to livestock, compared with 325 kilograms in China and just 90 kilograms in Zimbabwe.⁶

Economists, hunger activists, and agricultural researchers track world grain production because people still primarily eat foods made from grain. On average, humans get about 48 percent of their calories from grains, a share that has declined just slightly, from 50 percent, over the last four decades.⁷ Grains, particularly corn, in conjunction with soybeans, also form the primary feedstock for industrial livestock production.

People consume a little less than half (48 percent) of the world’s grain directly—as steamed rice, bread, tortillas, or millet cakes, for instance.⁸ Roughly one third (35 percent) becomes livestock feed.⁹ And a growing share, 17 percent, is used to make ethanol and other fuels.¹⁰

Although high crop prices have been pushing farmers around the world to plant more land in grains in recent years, a more powerful engine for the record output was a boost in average yields, the amount of grain harvested per hectare. For the last decade, grain yields have surpassed 3 tons—nearly three times the level in 1960.¹¹ Near-perfect weather in major growing areas as well as an estimated 5 percent jump in world fertilizer use helped farmers increase yields.¹²

World grain production is concentrated in a number of ways—in terms of the species produced, where the crops are raised, and the major exporters. Corn, wheat, and rice account for about 85 percent of the global grain harvest (in terms of weight), with sorghum, millet, barley, oats, and other less common grains rounding out the total.¹³

China, India, and the United States alone account for 46 percent of global grain production; Europe, including the former Soviet states, grows another 21 percent.¹⁴ Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union (EU), and the United States account for 80 percent of wheat exports, while just three nations— Argentina, the EU, and the United States— account for 80 percent of corn exports.¹⁵

In 2007, a 200-million-ton jump in the global coarse grain harvest was responsible for nearly all of the increase in the total grain harvest. ¹⁶ Production of coarse grains—a group that includes corn, barley, sorghum, and other grains fed mainly to animals—increased 10 percent, from 985 million tons in 2006 to 1,080 million tons in 2007.¹⁷ At 784 million tons, the record harvest of corn was buoyed by the growing use of this grain to produce biofuels, which prompted farmers in the United States (responsible for over 40 percent of the global harvest and half of world exports), Brazil, and Argentina to plant more land to corn.¹⁸ Production in China, the world’s second largest corn producer, inched beyond the previous year’s record.¹⁹

Worldwide, the amount of coarse grains converted to energy jumped 15 percent to 255 million tons, although this is still small compared with the 627 million tons devoted to another relatively inefficient use—livestock feed.²⁰

Wheat harvests increased modestly, by 2 percent, to 605 million tons, with near perfect weather nurturing strong harvests in India, the EU, and the United States.²¹ Australia, however, normally the source of one third of world exports, faced lower crop prospects and depleted exportable supplies.²² And unfavorable weather meant a reduced harvest in China, the world’s second largest producer.²³

The global rice harvest was up slightly to 633 million tons, matching the record 2005 harvest, as conditions returned to normal in China, India, and across Asia, which accounts for 90 percent of world production.²⁴

The amount of grain stored by governments— a good measure of the global cushion against poor harvests and rising prices—continues to decline. Global cereal stocks were expected to stand at 318 million tons by the close of the 2007 season, equivalent to about 14 percent of annual consumption.²⁵ (See Figure 3.) These stocks, and the stock-to-use ratio, built up by bumper crops in the 1980s and the late 1990s, are now substantially below their all-time high.²⁶

Despite the record harvest, the low stocks and strong demand combined to push prices of all cereals to new highs.²⁷ At harvest time, the U.S. corn export price was up about 70 percent from the previous year, while the American hard wheat price averaged 65 percent more than a year earlier.²⁸ Wheat prices in Argentina, another major exporter, doubled since 2006.²⁹ Important wheat exporters like Ukraine and Russia have imposed export restrictions to ensure a sufficient domestic supply.³⁰ Major importers, like Egypt, the European Union, Yemen, and Iraq, have reacted to high prices by purchasing grain early, which has further tightened supplies and boosted prices.³¹

As such increases ripple through the food chain, people around the world have been greeted with higher prices for bread, beer, corn flour, and other basic foods. Developing countries are likely to spend a record $52 billion on imports of cereals in 2007, up 10 percent from 2006.³² This follows a 36-percent hike in the previous season.³³

Even international food aid programs, which also purchase their supplies on the world market, have been forced to scale back.³⁴ The volume of aid provided through the largest assistance program in the United States, Food for Peace, dropped by nearly half since 2005, to 2.4 million tons, in response to a 35-percent increase in the cost of agricultural commodities as well as the rising costs of fuel for shipping.³⁵ The combination of rising food costs and declining aid can be fatal for the estimated 854 million people worldwide who experience hunger on a regular basis.³⁶

Global egg production doubled between 1990 and 2005.1 By then, some 64 million tons of eggs were produced worldwide (less than 1 percent more than in 2004).2 (See Figure 1.) Today there are approximately 4.93 billion egg-laying hens in the world, each capable of producing up to 300 eggs per year.3 By 2015, world egg production is expected to reach 72 million tons, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).4

While egg production has increased in the United States, Japan, India, and Mexico over the past four decades, most of the growth has been due to a 10-fold increase in eggs in developing countries in response to rising incomes and growing populations.5 Between 1990 and 2005, China accounted for 64 percent of the growth in world egg production.6 By 2005 this one country produced nearly 44 percent of the world’s eggs—28.7 million tons—more than five times as many as the next largest producer.7 (See Figure 2.) And this trend is expected to continue, with output there predicted to rise by 23 percent by 2015.8

By 2000, developing countries in Asia were producing twice as many eggs as all industrial countries.9 Output in the United States grew 13 percent between 1995 and 2000, compared with 34 percent in China during the same period.10 And in some countries, such as the United Kingdom, Japan, Hungary, and Denmark, fewer eggs were produced in 2000 than in 1998.11 The growth rate throughout the industrial world between 1961 and 2000 was quite low: 1.6 percent.12 Over the next 15 years, egg production in the industrial world is expected to increase from 18 million to 20 million tons, due in part to food saturation and overconsumption.13

People in industrial countries eat about twice as many eggs as people in developing countries—approximately 226 eggs per person per year.14 Yet only 30 countries are seeing any growth in per capita egg consumption.15 Among these nations are China, Libya, Mexico, Colombia, Turkey, and India.16 Elsewhere, egg consumption is either stable or falling.17 FAO predicts that most future growth in egg consumption will occur in the developing world in places like China, where income and population patterns are still shifting.18

Most egg production in China has transitioned from traditional, scattered, backyard farms to large-scale integrated operations.19 While small farmers once produced most of the eggs for markets for local consumers, largescale, vertically integrated factory farming has become the norm. Producers now typically confine egg-laying hens in small wire “battery” cages stacked in rows in sheds that are the length of a football field.20 Indeed, nearly 60 percent of China’s egg production in 2005 was done on farms with more than 500 layers.21 Taiwan alone produced about 390,000 tons of eggs in 2005 on 1,400 facilities housing on average 40,000 birds each.22

Market concentration and industrial, intensive production methods like these have found favor among Chinese egg industry leaders.23 “Intensification promises to be the right track for China to follow to develop its poultry industry,” noted Hongge Wang, senior economic expert for animal husbandry at the China National Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Service in Beijing.24 The Chinese government has already developed policies to encourage this, such as subsidies for large-scale farms.25

These policies have troubling implications for the environment, human health, and animal welfare. The Chinese State Environmental Protection Administration reports that industrial animal farms have become a major source of pollution, with raw manure being dumped into rivers that are a source of drinking water.26 By 2002, Taihu Lake—a critical part of the Yangtze River delta—had become severely polluted with nitrogen and phosphorus from the untreated waste of industrial poultry farms.27

Avian influenza has ravaged much of the Asian poultry industry since 2003, with egg layer flocks often being more affected than broiler (meat chicken) flocks.28 During the first four months of 2006, a commercial layer chick in China on average cost 24¢, a 12.6-percent decrease from the same period in the preceding year due to bird flu–related market disruptions.29 In Thailand, efforts to stop the spread of avian flu led to the destruction of almost half of the country’s 30 million egg-laying hens between November 2003 and February 2004.30

The industrial-style, intensive confinement of egg-laying hens in Asia has been strongly implicated in the epidemic’s spread. The International Food Policy Research Institute notes that “the critical issue is the keeping [of] more and more animals in smaller and smaller spaces.”31 According to FAO, “once high-density industrial poultry areas become affected, infection can be explosively spread within the units, and the very high quantities of virus produced may be easily carried to other units, to humans, and into the environment.”32

In addition, the intensive production methods that have enabled the dramatic surge in global egg production fall far short of any reasonable standard for animal welfare. Most hens on factory-style farms around the world live their entire lives in battery cages that frustrate most of their basic natural behaviors, including spreading their wings, walking freely, and nesting.33 Due to growing consumer and governmental awareness of inherent animal welfare problems with the cage system, this production method is being phased out in the European Union.34 And a growing consumer movement in the United States is steadily encouraging better standards for the country’s 300 million egg-laying hens.35

Similar efforts are under way in Asia, but less regulated markets there have caused the factory farm egg industry to grow.36 As public support for intensive confinement practices begins to dwindle in the West, large-scale egg producers are looking to Asia, where they can conduct business with little interference from individuals and groups concerned about animal welfare and environmental impacts.37

World seafood production neared 160 million tons in 2006, the last year for which there are data.¹ (See Figure 1.) The growth over the previous year was entirely due to increased fish farming, or aquaculture, which increased by more than 3 million tons, an annual addition that has been fairly consistent over the last 10 years.² In contrast, fish caught in the wild declined for the second year in a row and dropped to almost 4 million tons below the peak catch in 2000.³

About 75 percent of the fish caught and produced each year are destined for human consumption.⁴ This adds up to about 16.5 kilograms of fish per person annually on a global scale.⁵ In 2004, more than 2.6 billion people depended on fish for at least 20 percent of their animal protein.⁶

People in China eat the most fish, with an average 25.8 kilograms live weight equivalent per person, compared with a figure of only 8.2 kilograms in Africa.⁷ People in North and Central America eat 18.6 kilograms, while Euro­peans consume 19.9 kilograms a year.⁸ Not surprisingly, people who live in coastal areas eat more fish than others in the same country or region; in Oceania, per capita consumption is 23.5 kilograms.⁹ Differences within continents are also common: in the United States, the average fish consumption is 24.2 kilograms while in Mexico it is 11.6 kilograms; in Spain, the figure is 42.9 kilograms, compared with 34.3 kilo­grams in France, 29.5 kilograms in Sweden, and 19.8 kilograms in the United Kingdom.¹⁰

Globally, total seafood production grew at a slower rate than meat output for 8 of the last 10 years.¹¹ But aquaculture growth continues to far outpace all other animal food sectors, with average annual rates of 8.6 percent over three decades, compared with 2.8 percent for meat production during the same period.¹² Projec­tions indicate that seafood demand will con­tinue to grow along with population and incomes, especially as people in developing countries increase their overall consumption of animal products.¹³

The world's fisheries have remained relatively stable over the last 15 years: about 50 percent are being fished at full capacity, 25 percent are underfished, and the remainder are overex­ploited, depleted, or recovering.¹⁴ As a result, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization predicts that maximum wild fish capture has already been reached.¹⁵ Most of the stocks of the top 10 fished species are being fully fished or are overexploited, and studies have indicated that even in the most stable fisheries there have been declines in the most valuable species, such as tuna.¹⁶

Asia and the Pacific region dominate global aquaculture production, accounting for more than 90 percent.¹⁷ China is by far the world leader, with more than 45 million tons pro­duced in 2006-about 70 percent of global output and more than half of the total global value from aquaculture.¹⁸ The next closest producer is India, with just over 3 million tons.¹⁹ The only country outside this region in the top 10 producing countries is Chile.²⁰ (See Figure 2.)

At the same time that wild marine catches face further decline or stagnation, aquaculture production offers further growth potential. In China, more than three quarters of the fish supply comes from aquaculture, while the average for the rest of the world is 20 percent and rising.²¹ Sub-Saharan countries in Africa have the largest untapped potential because of resources like clean water and unused land.²²

Historically, most of the world's aquaculture has focused on species that are relatively low on the food chain, including seaweeds, shellfish, and herbivorous or omnivorous species like carp.²³ However, recent trends indicate stronger growth rates in carnivorous species like shrimp and salmon will continue, especially as demand increases.²⁴ (See Figure 3.)

Due in part to this trend, growth in aquaculture now drives global fishmeal and fish oil production. Until recently, fishmeal and fish oil were used primarily for pig and poultry production; today nearly 50 percent of fishmeal and 87 percent of fish oil is used in aquaculture.²⁵ In 1948, only 7.7 percent of wild-caught fish were reduced to fishmeal or fish oil, but that number has grown to 37 percent.²⁶ Because fishmeal and fish oil depend on overly taxed marine fisheries, increasing production on a large scale is unlikely.²⁷

Increasing the use of fishmeal and fish oil in aquaculture raises health and environmental concerns. The rendering process used to pre­pare these products concentrates the toxins found in the fish, including carcinogenic dioxins, which accumulate up through the food chain to people who eat contaminated fish.²⁸ This problem is seen clearly in farmed salmon, which consistently have significantly higher levels of dioxin than their wild counterparts.²⁹ Another troublesome toxin that accum­ulates in fish is mercury, which is especially dangerous for children.³⁰

Dependence on rendered fish also decreases the efficiency of farming fish, as fish-derived feed products require more energy to produce than plant-based ones.³¹ For farmed salmon, as much as 90 percent of all energy inputs go into providing food for the salmon.³² Indeed, farmed salmon can require five times more energy per edible protein unit than farmed shellfish.³³

Fish farms themselves, especially ones that raise carnivorous fish, can be a large source of water pollution, including nitrogen and excess nutrients that can create toxic blooms and dead zones.³⁴ Because fish are often raised in high densities to maximize profit, they can require antibiotics and other treatments for diseases, most of which end up in the water.³⁵

These problems have led some researchers and fish farmers to consider alternative prac­tices that would minimize environmental harm while allowing increased aquaculture produc­tion. For example, integrated fish farming works at the ecosystem level, using a combination of fish, shellfish, and aquatic plants to filter wastes and provide a self-sustaining source of food.³⁶ Integrated fish farming has been used outside major urban areas to raise fish for food and treat human wastes at the same time.³⁷

With an ongoing food crisis and a growing world population, seafood production could potentially play a vital role in addressing food security and meeting development goals. Fish is highly nutritious and can be an important source of vitamins, minerals, and protein, even when consumed in minimal amounts.³⁸ A recent World Bank survey showed that small-scale fish farming consistently pays off for workers by raising income, creating stable work, and increasing food supplies.³⁹ However, not all seafood production is created equal: overfishing is linked to poverty, leading to fewer jobs and taking away an important source of income in developing countries.⁴⁰

The world soybean harvest reached a record 214 million tons in 2005, the latest year with data, an increase of 4.4 percent from 2004.1 (See Figure 1.) The United States, Brazil, Argentina, and China accounted for 90 percent of that output.2 (See Figure 2.)

The United States is the largest producer of soybeans, with an output of 83.4 million tons in 2005.3 Over the past 25 years, however, its market dominance has eroded.4 The United States produced 60 percent of the world’s soybeans in 1980 but only 39 percent in 2005.5 The country’s declining role as an exporter can be traced to increased competition with South American producers, growing domestic competition with corn, the production of biodiesel, and the resistance in some markets to genetically modified (GM) soybeans.6

Soybeans enrich the soil with nitrogen, which can then be used by other plants, making them beneficial for crop rotations.7 In the United States, this has usually meant planting soybeans and corn in alternating years. But high demand for corn for ethanol production and distiller’s grains (a high-protein animal feed) has driven many farmers to plant two years of corn for every year of soybeans.8 This in large part explains the 7-percent decline in total U.S. soybean harvested area in 2005.9 Globally, however, harvested area stayed stable at 92 million hectares.10 (See Figure 3.)

Brazil produces a quarter of the soybeans worldwide and in 2003 became the largest exporter.11 Its success in this field is largely due to vast tracts of undeveloped land.12 The 11 states of the center-west and Amazonia regions, which include the cerrado—the world’s most diverse savanna—and large portions of the Amazon rainforest, doubled production from 2000 to 2005.13

Production in Argentina is growing even faster, with an increased output of 216 percent since 1995.14 Rapid South American soybean expansion is creating mono-crop plantations at a rate that endangers 22 million hectares of tropical forest and savanna in the next 20 years.15 Global growth in wealth and in industrial agriculture has resulted in greater consumption of meat and convenience foods, raising demand for soybeans as animal feed and as soybean oil (the most widely used vegetable oil).16 Soybean meal, the protein-rich solid produced in the soybean crushing and oil extraction process, accounts for 65 percent of the world’s protein feed.17 The majority of soy meal is used for animal feed, including 98 percent in the United States.18

Increased reliance on soy meal for industrial agriculture to supply China’s huge and increasingly urban population, coupled with the growing scarcity of agricultural land, has made China reliant on imported soybeans.19 Even though soybean cultivation began in China 5,000 years ago, in 2005 the country imported 74 percent of its soy.20 After entering the World Trade Organization in 2002, China reduced trade restrictions and doubled its imports to 21.4 million tons in 2003—accounting for 55 percent of its consumption.21 Soy meal demand in China and in Southeast Asia is reliant on poultry production, so success in controlling avian flu is expected to lead to further demand increases.22

Genetically modified soybeans were introduced to the market in 1996 to be resistant to the pesticide glyphosate, commonly sold as Roundup.23 In 2005, “Roundup Ready” soybeans accounted for 87 percent of the crop in the United States and 98 percent in Argentina. Similarly, GM soybeans accounted for 41 percent of Brazil’s harvested area—an 88 percent increase from 2004.24 Though the European Union was the top soy meal importer in 2005, it imports very little soybean oil for human consumption because of mandatory GM labeling and public stigma surrounding genetic engineering. 25

Sustained demand increases are expected for soybeans for animal feed, vegetable oil, and biodiesel, with a projected growth of 60 percent by 2025.26 In 2005, soybean oil accounted for 92 percent of the 250 million liters of biodiesel made in the United States, a recent use that is bound to grow as Americans turn to biofuels to replace imported oil.27 Similarly, 59 percent of Brazilian biodiesel came from soy.28

In 2006, world grain production dropped to 1,994 million tons—a fall of about 55 million tons, or some 2.7 percent, from the previous year.¹ (See Figure 1.)

Economists, hunger activists, and agricultural researchers track world grain production because people still primarily eat foods made from grain. On average, humans get about 48 percent of their calories from grains, a share that has declined just slightly from 50 percent over the last four decades.² Grains, particularly maize (corn) in conjunction with soybeans, also form the primary feedstock for industrial livestock production.

Global grain production per person dropped from 318 kilograms in 2005 to 305 kilograms in 2006.³ (See Figure 2.) But output per person varies dramatically by region. For instance, it stands at roughly 13,000 calories per day in the United States, most of which is fed to livestock, compared with 2,700 calories in China and just 670 calories in Zimbabwe.⁴ (One kilogram of grain contains about 3,500 calories.)

Production of the three major grain crops— wheat, corn, and rice—all declined in 2006, as the world’s major growing areas suffered poor weather.⁵ Wheat output in 2006 stood at roughly 592 million tons, down almost 33 million tons—5.3 percent—from 2005.⁶ This is the largest reduction since 1994 and was provoked by severe drought and heat across Australia and in Europe’s wheat belt, as well as unseasonably cold dry weather during planting time in North America and the Black Sea region.⁷ Global stocks of wheat declined by 16 percent since 2005, corn stocks were down nearly 20 percent, and total stocks, including rice, dropped by 17 percent.⁸ (See Figure 3.)

Typhoons, drought, flooding, diseases, and insect attacks marred the 2006 rice crop across Asia.⁹ Global production fell to 421 million tons, slightly down from 422 million tons in 2005.¹⁰ In India, the 2006 monsoon season, which ended in September, was erratic; several important rice-producing states, such as Assam, Tamil Nadu, and Uttar Pradesh, received less than the normal amount of precipitation, while rainfall was above average in Orissa.¹¹ Crops in China were also affected by droughts, floods, and disease problems, which kept production nearly the same as in 2005 despite larger plantings.¹² The world corn crop in 2006 was estimated at 694 million tons, 2.2 percent below the previous year, due to smaller crops in Argentina, South Africa, and the United States—which alone is responsible for 40 percent of the global crop.¹³

At the same time, global demand for corn jumped due to the rapid expansion in cornbased ethanol production, primarily in the United States. The amount of corn used for ethanol there has grown from just 6 percent of domestic production in 2000 to an estimated 20 percent in 2006, or roughly 55 million tons, about the same amount as is exported.¹⁴ There are currently 110 ethanol plants operating in 20 states across the country, with 79 additional plants under construction, which will more than double national capacity.¹⁵

By late 2006, rising demand combined with the poor grain harvests in key producing nations to push world grain prices to their highest levels in a decade.¹⁶ In November, the U.S. hard wheat export price averaged $219 a ton, up about one third from the previous year.¹⁷ The U.S. export price for No. 2 yellow maize averaged $164 per ton, up about 70 percent from the previous year.¹⁸

In the case of corn and wheat, these high prices will likely encourage farmers to plant more land in crops in 2007. But most analysts suspect that if the use of corn for ethanol continues to grow at the current pace, it may take more than one good crop season for prices to retreat significantly from their current highs.¹⁹

According to the latest Food Outlook from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, global expenditures on imported foodstuffs in 2006 could reach a historic high of $383 billion, more than 2 percent above the previous year’s level.²⁰ Import bills for developing countries are expected to have been almost 5 percent higher in 2006, mainly as a result of price increases rather than an increase in the actual volume of food imports.²¹ Higher prices will force many countries to cut back on food imports.