Transportation and Communication

In 2005, the number of passengers traveling on scheduled airlines in a single year passed 2 billion for the first time, according to provisional estimates from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).1 (See Figure 1.) And travelers flew an unprecedented distance— more than 3.7 trillion passenger-kilometers.2 (See Figure 2.) This is equivalent to 4.8 million people flying to the moon and back in one year.

ICAO numbers are an underestimate of total plane travel, as they do not include military aviation or the private and business jet industry that is so popular with politicians, business people, and celebrities.3 Some 4,000 new private and business planes were built in 2006, at a record cost of $18.8 billion, up 21 percent from 2005.4 (See Figure 3.) Private planes emit up to four tons of carbon dioxide per hour and carry few people, so the pollution-per-passenger ratio is much greater than on commercial flights.5

Due to war, terrorism, disease outbreaks, and rising fuel costs, the global airline industry has not turned a profit since 2000, though the International Air Transport Association expects an industry-wide profit of $2.5 billion in 2007, a profit margin of 0.5 percent.6 All regions except Africa are expected to be profitable.7

As the number of passengers flying each year grows, so does aviation-related pollution. One airplane crossing the Atlantic can use 60,000 liters of fuel—about as much as a driver uses in 50 years.8 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports that in 1992, the last year with data available, air transport contributed 2 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions but nearly all of the nitrogen oxide emissions found 8–15 kilometers above Earth.9 Because the emissions from planes occur so high in the atmosphere, they contribute to global warming at two to four times the rate of emissions closer to Earth, such as those from cars.10

Currently, emissions produced on international flights are not explicitly regulated by the Kyoto Protocol, though those produced during domestic flights are included in country-specific targets.11 The ICAO expects to issue guidelines for emissions trading related to international aviation in September 2007.12

Within the European Union (EU), by 2011 airlines will be accountable for emissions from all domestic air travel and flights between member countries under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS).13 And in 2012, all flights arriving at or departing from an EU airport will be subject to ETS, with caps set at the average level of emissions between 2004 and 2006.14

One way to reduce the emissions caused by flying is to improve international air traffic management. Cutting flight times and making routes more efficient would avoid an estimated 73 million tons of carbon emissions each year.15 Virgin Air is experimenting with electric tractors that tow planes from gates to the runway, saving up to 2,500 liters of fuel per flight.16

Aircraft design matters immensely: new airplanes are 70 percent more fuel-efficient than those designed 40 years ago and 20 percent more efficient than those built just 10 years ago.17 High fuel prices provide a continued incentive to design more-efficient planes. Future planes may have longer, lighter wings with engines mounted at the tips, which would reduce drag and cut plane weight.18

Noise and material waste are also significant environmental concerns. The Natural Resources Defense Council reports that the U.S. airline industry throws away enough aluminum cans each year to build 58 Boeing 747 airplanes.19 Paper is the largest category of waste generated by the industry.20

Some airports are taking their environmental records seriously. Japan’s Centrair Airport, opened in 2005, was built on an artificial island to minimize noise and air pollution over nearby communities.21 The island was carefully shaped to preserve existing ocean currents, and a hydrogen fuel cell bus ferries passengers between terminals.22 In 2006 Boston’s Logan Airport Terminal A became the first U.S. airport to receive the Green Building Council’s Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design certi- fication for, among other features, its natural lighting, energy-saving roof design, and use of paints and sealants with low volatile organic compounds.23

Bicycle production rose to 105 million units globally in 2004 (the last year with global data), a 1.5-percent increase over 2003.1 (See Figure 1.) The increase is actually a slowdown in production as firms draw down inventories that had grown during two years of rapid growth.

Although bicycles are produced in dozens of countries, the top five producers—China, India, the European Union, Taiwan, and Japan—are responsible for 87 percent of global production. 2 China is in a league of its own, however, with some 58 percent of the global market in 2004.3 (See Figure 2.)

Preliminary figures suggest that Chinese production increased by 11 percent in 2005.4 Given the relatively flat trajectories of other major producers, it is very possible that by 2006 China alone accounted for two thirds of global bicycle output.

The Chinese juggernaut faces obstacles, however, especially trade barriers imposed in Europe, Mexico, and Canada. Mexico’s 144-percent tariffs, first imposed in 1994 and renewed in 2005, have effectively shut Chinese bikes out of that country.5 And Europe’s 48.5-percent duties on Chinese bicycles, adopted in 2005, were expected to curb Chinese sales in Europe substantially.6 But China may be adapting to the restrictive European market, in part by setting up production facilities in Eastern Europe.7 Meanwhile, India is reducing tariffs on bicycles, an encouraging development for Chinese firms, especially in light of projections of a 33-percent increase in demand for bicycles there between 2006 and 2010.8

Production of electric bicycles—with electric motors that make longer and hillier rides possible with less exertion—continues to boom. Introduced in the mid-1990s, global sales rose to 12.1 million units by 2005.9 China accounted for as many as 11 million of these and is expected to remain the strongest engine of demand: Chinese consumers were expected to buy 15 million electric bikes in 2006.10 Meanwhile, electric models could receive a boost when new standards to be finalized in Europe make components of different producers compatible.11

Government support for bicycles—typically in response to concerns about climate change, traffic congestion, energy conservation, and fitness—is increasingly evident. Taiwan announced in 2006 a plan to build 2,600 kilometers of bicycle lanes over the next five years and to adopt bicycle-friendly traffic rules.12 In London, a congestion tax on autos produced a 50-percent increase in bike trips in the city, while use of the 16,000-kilometer-long National Cycle Network rose by 15 percent between 2004 and 2005.13

In Australia, the state of Victoria committed in 2006 to triple its funding of bikeways over the next decade.14 France created the position of “Monsieur Velo”—a Cycling Czar—whose chief responsibility is to increase biking rates, likely through promoting measures to increase cycling safety, provide more bicycle parking, and offer greater bike access to public transportation. 15 And in San Francisco, the city has set a goal of raising commuters’ bicycle use from 2 to 10 percent of trips by 2010.16

Achieving such a transformation in U.S. cities is a tall order. But a 2006 study found that the higher cycling rate in Canada—three times above that in the United States—could be traced to infrastructure differences rather than to weather or cultural differences.17 It found, for example, that cycling rates in the Yukon are twice as high as in Southern California and three times as high as in Florida.18 The authors concluded that cycling in the United States could be increased through changes in transport and land use policies.19 U.S. transportation legislation has increased funding for bicycling infrastructure from $150 million in 1992–97 to $900 million for 2005–09.20 But cycling’s share of transportation funding remains minuscule.21 (See Figure 3.)

Meanwhile, entrepreneurs continue to play a role in promoting cycling. A subscription bike rental service opened in Boston in 2006 that offers a year’s use of a 15-speed mountain bike for just $19.99.22 The bulk of the revenue for the service comes from advertising mounted on the bike frames, which costs companies about $100 a month for ads on four bikes.23

According to Global Insight, global passenger car production in 2007 rose to 52.1 million units from 49.1 million the previous year.¹ In addition, production of "light trucks" ran to 18.9 million, up from 17.9 million in 2006, for a combined total of 74.1 million.² Global Insight projects 2008 total production to reach 75.8 million.³ (See Figure 1.) Including unused production capacity, the world's auto companies are capable of churning out some 84 million vehicles per year. PricewaterhouseCoopers projects that by 2015 worldwide capacity to grow to 97 million units.⁴

Japan produced the most vehicles in 2007, 11 million, closely followed by the United States with 10.5 million.⁵ China's production continues to surge, reaching 8.1 million vehicles in 2007. Projected 2008 output of 9.3 million would bring it almost to a par with the United States, whose production is expected to decline to 9.5 million units.⁶ The next largest producers are Germany (6 million) and South Korea (4 million).⁷ (See Figure 2.) France, Spain, Brazil, Canada, and Mexico each produced between 2 million and 3 million units.⁸ At 1.95 million vehicles, India is close to joining the top 10.⁹

The world's fleet of passenger vehicles is now an estimated 622 million, up from 500 million in 2000 and a mere 53 million in 1950.¹⁰ China continues to expand not only its production but also its domestic car ownership. There are now an estimated 43-47 million vehicles on the road there-about as many as the United States had in 1947.¹¹ India's love affair with the automobile is taking off too. And when the country's Tata Motors unveiled the "Nano" in 2008-a no-frills vehicle advertised as the world's cheapest car-it made a splash around the world.¹²

The transport sector, which relies heavily on cars and trucks for freight movement, is responsible for about a quarter of the world's energy use and has the fastest-rising carbon emissions of any economic sector.¹³ Road transport cur­rently accounts for 74 percent of the world's total transport-related carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions.¹⁴

Improved fuel economy not only limits energy consumption but translates directly into reduced emissions of carbon dioxide. It can also help reduce air pollution from vehicles, although fuel economy and lower emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides or particulate matter do not necessarily go hand in hand.¹⁵ Lowering air pollution depends on both improvements in engine technology and the production of cleaner fuels (especially those with lower sulfur content). Japan and the United States, followed by the European Union, have the most stringent emission limits.¹⁶ China and India are introducing regulations that follow those of the Euro­pean Union, though with a time lag of several years.¹⁷

Hybrid vehicles are generally seen as a key means to achieve higher fuel efficiency, although this technology can be equally applied to boost acceleration and horsepower. In 2007, a total of 541,000 hybrids were produced.¹⁸ Pricewater­houseCoopers projects that by 2015 some 2.2 million of these vehicles might be produced.¹⁹

Toyota, the company that popularized such cars with the introduction of the Prius in 1997, in 2007 reached the milestone of a cumulative 1 million hybrids produced.²⁰ The company sold half of these vehicles in the United States, where it commands a cumulative 73-percent share of the hybrid market.²¹ All in all, 2.2 percent of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales were hybrids in the 2007 model year.²² By 2015, hybrids might reach a U.S. market share of anywhere between 5 and 11 percent.²³ In Japan, car companies sold close to 89,000 hybrid passenger vehicles in 2006, for 1.6 percent of all cars sold.²⁴

European countries have embraced diesel-powered cars (which account for 50 percent of total sales there), since diesels consume 30 percent less fuel than gasoline engines and emit 25 percent less CO₂.²⁵ Worldwide, demand for diesel-powered light vehicles is projected to increase from 16 million in 2007 to 29 million in 2017, resulting in an increase in market share from a current 23.6 percent to 31.5 percent.²⁶ Evolving engine technology and cleaner fuels have rendered diesel passenger cars substan­tially cleaner than in the past, especially with regard to sulfur dioxide emissions. However, they still emit far more nitrogen oxides and particulate matter than cars that use gasoline do.²⁷

A 2007 report by the International Council on Clean Transportation concludes that Japanese and European factories produce the most-efficient vehicles available today, with new passenger vehicles scoring roughly 40 miles per gallon (mpg) on average.²⁸ The United States is at the bottom of this international ranking, while countries like China, Canada, and Australia are in between and working to increase efficiency in coming years.²⁹

In 1998, European, Japanese, and South Korean companies selling vehicles in Europe entered into a voluntary agreement with the European Commission to lower the amount of carbon emitted by new passenger cars.³⁰ The goal was to reduce the 1995 level of 186 grams of CO₂ per kilometer to 140 grams by 2008/2009.31 According to Commission reports, just over 26 percent of European-produced vehicles met the goal in 2004.³² For Japanese- and Korean-made cars sold in the European Union, the numbers were 21 and 29 percent, respectively.³³ Because cars have become heavier and more muscular, the industry is not expected to achieve its voluntary aim. In response, the European Commission adopted a proposal forcing manufacturers to produce cars that emit 130 grams per kilometer by 2012 and said it would present further measures in pursuit of a goal of 120 grams.³⁴

The United States has scorned higher fuel efficiency for more than two decades.³⁵ Following the first oil crisis of the early 1970s, sales of the biggest gas-guzzlers-those achieving 15 mpg or less-declined dramatically, from 67 percent of sales in model year 1975 to just 4.5 percent in 1982.³⁶ (See Figure 3.) But the bulk of vehicle sales remains in the interval between 15 and 25 mpg, and the recent popularity of SUVs has even led to reversals of fuel economy gains.³⁷ Just 1.2 percent of all U.S. light vehicles in the 2007 model year could be categorized as truly fuel-efficient-that is, achieving at least 35 miles per gallon, and thus roughly on a par with European carbon limits.38 On average, new U.S. cars in 2007 emitted about 180 grams of carbon per kilometer.³⁹

Leadership in pursuing fuel economy and reducing carbon emissions is essential if the industry is to avoid a head-on collision with climate stability. The motor vehicle industry is a cornerstone of modern economies and an important source of jobs. But a relatively small share of the industry's current output-and thus its employment base-can be considered sustainable. Using the 120 grams of CO₂ per kilometer limit as a threshold, about a quarter-million of the automobile manufacturing industry's global workforce of 8.4 million jobs can be considered a shade of green: 150,000 out of more than 2 million jobs in Europe, 62,000 out of 820,000 in Japan, 10,000 out of 250,000 in South Korea, and 13,000 out of 1.1 million in the United States.⁴⁰

Thailand's government is encouraging effi­cient vehicle production in an innovative way.⁴¹ The government decided in June 2007 to grant tax incentives to auto manufacturers that pro­duce small, fuel-efficient "eco-cars."⁴² In order to receive tax breaks, a company must, among other things, produce cars that get at least 20 kilometers per liter (47 mpg), generate no more than 120 grams of CO₂ per kilometer, and meet Euro-4 air emissions standards.⁴³ The country's 182,000-strong auto industry workforce produced just under 300,000 cars and 896,000 commercial vehicles (mostly small pickup trucks) in 2005.⁴⁴ Thailand has the potential to become a regional hub of "eco-car" production, with plans to serve markets in other Asian countries, Australia, and Africa.⁴⁵

Due to a lack of data, calculations on "green" jobs are not possible at the moment for other major vehicle-producing countries, such as China (with 1.6 million employees), Russia (755,000), Brazil (289,000), and India (270,000).⁴⁶ But China and India are targeting small car production, with China's Chery compact model reportedly achieving a fuel rate of 27 kilometers per liter, equivalent to 63 mpg.⁴⁷