Conflict and Peace

Costs for United Nations peacekeeping operations from July 2007 to June 2008 are expected to run to $7 billion—substantially higher than the record $5.6 billion spent in 2006–07.¹ (See Figure 1.) Currently running operations in 17 countries, the United Nations now deploys more soldiers, military observers, and police than ever before: a total of 84,309 as of December 2007.² (See Figure 2.) This figure includes more than 70,000 soldiers, close to 10,000 police, and about 2,500 military observers.³ Counting international and local civilian staff and volunteers, the total runs up to about 106,000.⁴ And 11 smaller “political and peacebuilding” missions (typically follow-up efforts once a peacekeeping mission ends) deployed another 3,787 personnel as of late 2007.⁵ Of the total U.N. personnel, about 7,000 are women—2,000 in uniform and 5,000 civilians.⁶

Still, U.N. peacekeeping continues to be dwarfed by military spending and staffing priorities. World military budgets stood at $1,232 billion in 2006—that’s 228 times as much as was spent on U.N. peacekeeping.⁷ The extended U.S. war in Iraq has cost about $632 billion, or an average of more than $100 billion per year.⁸ International deployments of national military forces that are not part of peacekeeping operations totaled about 540,000 in 2005.⁹ U.S. troops in Iraq, Afghanistan, and other military bases around the globe account for about 394,000 of that figure.¹⁰ Other countries with significant foreign deployments—Turkey, the United Kingdom, France, Russia—together have about 117,000 soldiers in other countries.¹¹

Two new U.N. missions were authorized during 2007: UNAMID, a U.N.–African Union “hybrid” force in Darfur, and MINURCAT, a mission in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Chad. This region of Africa is home to a series of partially linked crises. Instability and violence in Sudan’s Darfur region have spilled over into neighboring Chad, which is also suffering from clashes between the government and two rebel groups along the border with Sudan. And in the CAR, fighting persists in the northwest and along the border with Chad and Cameroon.¹²

A U.N. Security Council resolution passed in July 2007 authorized UNAMID to grow tonearly 20,000 military personnel, plus several thousand police officers and civilians.¹³ But these numbers won’t be reached until perhaps late 2008. Aid workers fear that in the meantime the humanitarian situation for millions of displaced people will not improve.¹⁴

Peacekeepers come from all corners of the world. Altogether, 119 countries contributed personnel to the U.N. missions in 2007—including many nations that themselves suffer from armed conflict.¹⁵ During 1996–2007, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka accounted for 34 percent of the total.¹⁶ Five other nations each provided more than 2,000 peacekeepers: Ghana, Jordan, Italy, Nigeria, and Uruguay.¹⁷ Eleven additional countries, more than half of them African, made at least 1,000 peacekeepers available.¹⁸ Stepped-up commitments by China and France brought the contribution of five permanent members of the Security Council to close to 6 percent of all personnel.¹⁹ Yet at about 300 personnel each, the other three permanent members—the United States, United Kingdom, and Russia—remained stingy contributors, especially relative to their own military engagements around the world.²⁰

Seven missions account for about 87 percent of the current peacekeeping budget.²¹ Missions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and in southern Sudan together cost more than $2 billion in 2007–08, and the new mission in Darfur alone is pegged at close to $1.5 billion, pending U.N. General Assembly budgetary approval.²² The next four largest deployments—in Liberia, Haiti, Côte d’Ivoire, and Lebanon—together cost about $2.5 billion.²³ The top missions also account for the bulk of all currently deployed U.N. peacekeeping personnel.²⁴

Two thirds of all Blue Helmets, as U.N. peacekeepers are called, are currently deployed in nine missions in Africa (and that portion is set to expand as UNAMID’s ranks swell toward authorized deployment limits).²⁵ The Middle East has the second most, with 16 percent, followed by the Americas with 11 percent, Europe with 6 percent, and Asia with 3 percent.²⁶

Compared with the early days of peacekeeping—when missions were largely limited to monitoring and maintaining peace along well-defined lines and were based on strict neutrality—today’s missions are highly complex. They often involve providing assistance in elections and other political processes, building or rebuilding institutions, reforming judicial systems, training law enforcement and police forces, disarming and reintegrating former combatants, and performing other tasks that help foster and consolidate peace.²⁷ In a number of cases, such as Cambodia, East Timor, and Kosovo, the United Nations even acted as the transitional authority in the absence of a recognized or functioning government.²⁸

The Security Council approves new missions but does not necessarily see to it that they have the necessary resources, leading to growing strains.²⁹ One bottleneck is the limited capacity or willingness of member states to provide adequately trained personnel and equipment in a timely manner, which has led to delayed deployments and overburdened peacekeepers.

To pay for peacekeeping, member states are assessed a portion of the total costs according to a formula measuring their ability to pay. The top two—the United States and Japan—together are responsible for 43 percent of the total bill.³⁰ Germany, the United Kingdom, and France account for 24 percent.³¹ Overall, just 15 countries cover 90 percent of the budget.³² But when they balk, by paying late or withholding part of what they owe, peacekeeping finances are thrown into deep crisis, as has happened repeatedly.

As of November 2007, $3.15 billion of peacekeeping payments had not been made by national governments.³³ (See Figure 3.) At $1.1 billion, the United States owed 34 percent of this total.³⁴ Japan is the number two deadbeat (at $730 million), followed by France ($189 million) and China ($178 million).³⁵ The next 11 largest contributors together owed another $454 million. Only Mexico and Brazil came close to paying their dues in full.³⁶

Nowadays the United Nations is far from the only organization that dispatches peacekeepers. Non-U.N. missions can also be found in all regions of the world, often with the imprimatur of the U.N. Security Council (and thus added legitimacy) and sometimes working as “hybrids” in conjunction with the Blue Helmets. Indeed, in some conflict areas multiple missions are deployed simultaneously.

During 2007, 47 missions were maintained by a variety of regional organizations, such as the European Union and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, or by ad hoc coalitions.³⁷ They involved an estimated 42,000 soldiers in 2007.³⁸ (See Figure 4.) Budget information is incomplete, but these deployments cost at least $1.3 billion in 2007.³⁹ And these data exclude the 41,000-plus soldiers of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force, as this increasingly resembles conventional combat more than peacekeeping.⁴⁰

For both U.N. and non-U.N. missions there are lingering questions about how to deal with situations where there may not be any peace to be kept. Mandates now often include “peace enforcement” by force of arms—a product of criticism that earlier missions were ineffective and of the growing acceptance of a “responsibility to protect” civilian populations who are in harm’s way. But there is always a danger that peacekeepers become just another warring party.

During 2006, the number of wars and armed conflicts worldwide remained almost unchanged from previous years at 43, according to AKUF, a conflict research group at the University of Hamburg.1 (See Figure 1.) There were 28 full-fledged wars and 15 armed conflicts (organized violence of lesser severity).2 Asia was home to the most conflicts (16), followed by Africa (12) and the Middle East (11).3

Three conflicts were terminated, yet elsewhere an equal number of new conflicts erupted. Fighting ended in Indonesia (Aceh), India (Bodos), and Ethiopia (Gambela region).4 But East Timor, the Central African Republic, and Brazil (where criminal violence in São Paulo escalated) were subjected to fresh outbreaks of violence.5 And the scale of violence increased sufficiently during 2006 in Sri Lanka and in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province to merit reclassification from armed conflicts to full wars.6

Available information about many conflicts is typically incomplete and often even contradictory. In addition, varying definitions and methodologies—sets of criteria that need to be met in order for episodes of violence to be counted as a conflict—are used by different researchers. It is thus not surprising that such efforts can lead to diverging assessments.

The Uppsala/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset, one of the most widely used, indicates conflict trends that follow a roughly similar trajectory as the AKUF data. However, the aggregate numbers of active conflicts for any given year are quite different.7 (See Figure 2.)

The Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research (HIIK) in Germany finds that while the number of “high intensity” conflicts has indeed declined in recent years, “medium intensity” conflicts (characterized by sporadic rather than continuous violence) have risen steeply, as have “low intensity” (nonviolent) con- flicts.8 (See Figure 3.) Some 58 percent of all conflicts in 2006 involved nonviolence.9

Although reliable data are scarce, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan’s Darfur region, and Iraq rank among the deadliest con- flict areas.10 For example, a rigorous survey of mortality in Iraq after the U.S. invasion, based on interviews with close to 2,000 households across the country, led researchers to extrapolate that some 600,000 Iraqis may have died violent deaths between March 2003 and July 2006.11 This finding proved controversial, particularly since other estimates are far lower.12 Yet other tallies are based on records such as media reports or mortuary and hospital death data that for a variety of reasons fail to capture a significant portion of total deaths.

Wars not only kill, they drive many people out of their homes—forcing them to flee to other countries or to seek safety elsewhere within their own country. In an encouraging trend, the U.N. High Commissioner for Refuges reports that the number of refugees at the beginning of 2006 was at its lowest level since 1980—8.4 million.13 During 2005, some 1.1 million mostly Afghan refugees returned home voluntarily, while only 136,000 people newly became refugees—the smallest number in 29 years.14

However, the number of so-called internally displaced persons (IDPs)—those who do not cross an international border and often lack even the most rudimentary protections—has not declined. The World Refugee Survey put the number of IDPs worldwide at 20.1–21.3 million as of December 2005.15 The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre offers an estimate of 23.7 million.16 Among the most worrisome situations is the one in Iraq, with some 1.7 million IDPs and 2 million refugees, or 13 percent of the population.17

A broad range of conflict resolution efforts were undertaken in 2006. In at least 31 of the 278 active conflicts tallied by HIIK, talks or negotiations were held.18 Six peace treaties and seven ceasefire agreements were signed.19 The United Nations and other entities carried out more than 60 peacekeeping and monitoring missions.20 A variety of sanctions are in force in order to contain or end conflicts. The United Nations maintained sanctions against eight states during 2006 (Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, and North Korea), as well as al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan.21